His analysis does not square with just about everything else I’ve read. He’s giving states to Obama that are squarely up in the air or leaning Republican.
I'd say he's making states a Republican will probably carry into leaning Republican or toss-up states. But taking into account the advantages of incumbency, I'd say Obama stands a pretty good chance of carrying OH, PA, and MI. It's certainly not a lock, but a Republican will have to work hard to win those states.
Here's an alternative map that may be more plausible:
FL & OH aren’t swing states. The Republican will easily win them. In 2010, both of those states elected new U.S. senators, and both are Republicans. In ‘10, both of those states elected new governors, and both are Republicans.