Thank you for pointing out your link, it was very informative!
OK, this needs fleshing out but I’ll post what I have so far. I went through the Heritage list of 50 terror takedowns and simplified them. if it was conspiracy and planning and plotting with no explosives or hardware, it says “conspiracy” and sometimes “support”, which means “material support for a terror group”.
If the takedown involved a real attack I put down real attack (underwaear bomber, shoe bomber).
If there was a sting where the FBI or whoever provided inoperable guns and or fake explosives, I put that down.
I need to do some counting, but it looks like there are many cases of conspiracy and or support, some overseas, that do not involve explosives or hardware (23). There are not that many real attacks (3?), and in recent years 9 or 10 sting operations involving fakes and duds.
1- 2003, real attack
2-2003, conspiracy and support
3-providing support
4-2003, support, provide explosives overseas
5-2003, conspiracy and support
6-2003, conspiracy, support
7-2003, conspiracy and support
8-2003, conspiracy to plant bombs (no explosives just planning)
9-2004, planning and conspiracy (in Pakistan)
10-2004, conspiracy, infiltrated
11-2004, sting w fake munitions
12-2005, support (took training)
13-2005, conspiracy
14-2005, sting, some real explosives later found
15-2006, conspiracy
16- 2006, conspiracy, support
17-2006, conspiracy, infiltrated
18-2006, conspiracy, overseas
19-2006, conspiracy, overseas, no explosives
20-2006, sting, fake grenades
21-2007, conspiracy, mastermind
22-2007, conspiracy, weapons charges, infiltrated
23-2007, conspiracy
24- 2008, conspiracy, disclosing classified
25-2008, consiracy
26- 2008, conspiracy, support, overseas
27-2009, sting, fake explosives
28- 2009, conspiracy, support
29- 2009, conspiracy, cached precursors
30- 2009, sting, fake bomb
31- 2009, sting, fake explosives
32- 2009, conspiracy
33-2009, actual attack with explosives (underwear)
34- 2010, material suport
35- 2010, actual attack but “explosives” were commercial fireworks and gas
36- 2010, making false statements, no weapons or explosives
37- 2010, support, surveillance
38- 2010, actual explosives shipped to USA
39- 2010, sting, fake explosives
40- 2010, sting, fake explosives
41- 2011, attempted use of WMD, purchased precursor
42- 2011, sting, purchased apparently live grenades from cops
43-2011, firearms, precursors, shooting at govt buildings
44-2011, sting, inoperable weapons
45- 2011, solicitation to commit crimes, distribution of explosives information
46- 2011, provided trigger device to FBI agent, conspiracy
47- 2011, conspiracy blown by informants ( a Mexi cartel squealed!)
48- 2011, had bomb components with intent to use, “informant” involved
49- 2012, sting, disabled guns and fake explosives
50- 2012, sting, inoperable weapons and fake bombs
Sorted out a little:
REAL ATTACKS (4)
1- 2003, real attack
33-2009, actual attack with explosives (underwear)
35- 2010, actual attack but “explosives” were commercial fireworks and gas
43-2011, firearms, precursors (AN), shooting at govt buildings
EXPLOSIVES OR HARDWARE INVOLVED (7)
22-2007, conspiracy, weapons charges, infiltrated
4-2003, support, provide explosives overseas
29- 2009, conspiracy, cached precursors
38- 2010, actual explosives shipped to USA
41- 2011, attempted use of WMD, purchased precursor
46- 2011, provided trigger device to FBI agent, conspiracy (cell phone mod)
48- 2011, had bomb components with intent to use, “informant” involved
STING WITH FAKES (12)
11-2004, sting w fake munitions
14-2005, sting, some real explosives later found
20-2006, sting, fake grenades
27-2009, sting, fake explosives
30- 2009, sting, fake bomb
31- 2009, sting, fake explosives
39- 2010, sting, fake explosives
40- 2010, sting, fake explosives
42- 2011, sting, purchased apparently live grenades from cops
44-2011, sting, inoperable weapons
49- 2012, sting, disabled guns and fake explosives
50- 2012, sting, inoperable weapons and fake bombs
CONSPIRACY, NO HARDWARE (27)
2-2003, conspiracy and support
3-providing support
5-2003, conspiracy and support
6-2003, conspiracy, support
7-2003, conspiracy and support
8-2003, conspiracy to plant bombs (no explosives just planning)
9-2004, planning and conspiracy (in Pakistan)
10-2004, conspiracy, infiltrated
12-2005, support (took training)
13-2005, conspiracy
Please do not misunderstand: I think your larger point is valid. I merely was remarking that what you refer to as a statistical “oddity” is actually a statistical correlation.