Posted on 05/16/2012 7:37:25 AM PDT by mandaladon
Don’t get too excited about the Obama/Romney number. Wisconsin hasn’t turned red since 1984, so if Mitt ends up winning there this year it’ll likely be because he’s riding a landslide wave that’s sweeping all sorts of unlikely states into his column. It’s not going to decide the election, in other words, unless Obama holds onto it and wins with just slightly more than 270 votes.
The recall vote is another matter. Tom Barrett just won the Democratic recall primary and, according to this poll, has gotten an exciting zero-point bounce from it. Barrett is also mayor of Milwaukee and lost to Walker in 2010 — which is to say, Wisconsin voters have had a long time to value his stock. Like John McCormack says, there’s no reason to think anyone’s opinion of him will change over the next three weeks so, barring a turnout effort by big labor that’s somehow even more superhuman than the superhuman effort that’ll be turned in by Walker’s supporters, how exactly does Barrett win this?
A few things to note:
There does appear to be an enthusiasm gap that’s favoring the GOP right now. Among registered voters (as opposed to likely voters), the race was a point tighter, with Walker up 49-45…
As a consequence, the numbers in the presidential race are far, far closer than anyone expects to see this fall, with Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney just 47-46 among RVs (and the same spread among LVs). But that further buttresses the notion of an enthusiasm gap for the recall, because the June electorate is definitely looking more Republican-friendly than the November one.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
What is amazing is that close to 50% still support the unions.
"Don’t get too excited about the Obama/Romney number. Wisconsin hasn’t turned red since 1984, so if Mitt ends up winning there this year it’ll likely be because he’s riding a landslide wave that’s sweeping all sorts of unlikely states into his column."I suspect that this will be the case. I fully expect Obama to go down by double digits . . . yes, even to "Milque Toast" Mitt.
Walker’s up by five among RV’s?
This could end up being a blowout!!!
Wonder how he's doing with busses and SUVs. ;)
“I think the WH internal polling is abysmal and they are in full blown panic mode.”
Just look at the splinter groups they are desperately trying to court.
They are running away from the main stream voters. An incumbent who has a winning record wouldn’t be doing this.
Their only hope is to divide and try to cobble together enough votes in the right states to squeeze out a win.
They are in full panic mode. They have written off the mainstream white vote, and these same voters are beginning to realize it and they will vote accordingly.
Worshipping unions is part of the culture in some states. I'm surprised it's as low as 50%.
Hopefully better than the thugs coming up in them from Chicago to vote on 5 June.
Wisconsin: Walker up by 5 in the Daily Kos poll ping
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.
Bush - 1,478,120
Kerry - 1,489,504
A difference of only 11,000 votes—even with all the Dem vote fraud.
I disagree. The RATS are pissed that the DNC is not helping with the campaign to throw out Walker. If Walker stays in power, you could see enough RATs spitefully stay home in November, and give this one to Romney !
schadenfreude !!!
Whenever the Daily Chaos reports poll results if you add five points to the Republican and subtract five from the Rat you’ll get the *real* result.
Rush just said that the ‘rats have ceded Wisconsin, pulling all their money out because of the huge polling difference.
Local and out of state unions poured an unbelievable amount of money into the recall effort (not just Scott Walker, but also Lt. Governor and a bunch of state Senators too). Perhaps we can hope they have shot themselves in the foot by draining their war chests with only a pittance left for November.
Regards,
GtG
It seems the Repubs are actually motivated in Wisconsin.
But my conspiracy-minded self makes me think that these polls
(Daily Kos, NYt, etc) are typical fake Dem numbers purely designed to worry the base and get them fired up.
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