The TX-16 is far less Republican than the TX-27 in which Farenthold beat Ortiz; the latter CD had been carried by President Bush in 2004. But if O’Rourke proves to be not only “controversial” but unpopular with moderate and conservative voters, and if his Anglo name (Robert O’Rourke)appears on the ballot without his nickname and fools some Mexican-American voters into thinking that Barbara Carrasco is the only Hispanic on the ballot, this could actually be a race.
Had Texas Republican redistricters drawn two districts with a bit over 50% of their population in El Paso, one going north to take in those 40%-Hispanic areas around Lubbock and Amarillo and the other going east to take in 40%-Hispanic areas around Midland, Odessa and San Angelo, they could have drawn two 60%+ Hispanic districts that would have given President Bush around 60% of the vote in 2004. That would have allowed the GOP to elect two Hispanic Republicans to Congress from West Texas. Alas, that would have taken ingenuity and risk-taking, two things that Texas Republican redistricters seem to be lacking. It is ridiculous to draw these 80%-Hispanic districts that will cast half as many votes as the next-door 30%-Hispanic districts. Besides, has Republicans drawn more Hispanic-majority districts, they wouldn’t have the courts carving up their maps.
Due to his nickname, the fact that he was a city councilman in overwhelmingly Mexican-American El Paso and the fact that he was running in the Dem primary in a 78% (or so) Hispanic congressional district (whose Dem primary electorate is probably over 75% Hispanic), I had assumed that Robert “Beto” O’Rourke was Hispanic despite his Anglo name. But apparently he’s Irish-American on both sides. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beto_O%27Rourke#section_4
This could give Republican Barbara Carrasco a small opening in the general election in a district with a heavy Dem lean but that gave George W. Bush around 50% in his 1998 gubernatorial reelection and like 43% in his 2004 presidential reelection. She’ll be the only Hispanic on the ballot, and could steal some Democrat votes. Plus, Hispanic Democrat politicians in El Paso who wish to get elected to Congress some day know that if O’Rourke gets elected he’ll be very difficult to dislodge, but Carrasco could be defeated in 2014 by a united Democrat front.