The only two GOP-held CDs in TX that I think the Dems have a shot at picking up are Quico Canseco’s TX-23 (which was made a bit more Republican, but not much) and the TX-14 that Ron Paul vacated and where Lampson is running. It now includes Jefferson County (Beaumont) and the GOP vote is like 10% lower than the old TX-14; it’s more akin to the CD that Lampson represented from 1997-2005 than to any of the districts represented by Ron Paul. The GOP should be favored, but it’s by no means a slam dunk, and Lampson is probably the strongest possible candidate the Dems could have run. Hopefully we’ll beat Lampson and get rid of him once and for all, but a Lampson victory isn’t out of the question.
(BTW, had black parts of Jefferson County been added to one of the two black-plurality CDs in the Houston area, the Dems wouldn’t even be contesting any of the white Anglo CDs in the region. GOP redistricters also could have drawn two GOP-leaning 60%-Hispanic CDs in the Houston area, but they decided to stick with a 70%-Hispanic CD for Gene Green and with heavy Hispanic populations in the two black-plurality districts. Missed opportunities abound in TX redistricting.)
You think? It’s still pretty good, 57-42 McCain in the 2008 election. That’s only slightly worse than the old Delay seat where Lampson got 45% in 2008 against Pete Olson while Osama got 41%.
I figure Glove will beat Osama there by about 60-40. Lampson will need quite a bit of crossover votes.
A second comeback by him is entirely unacceptable to my disposition. If were a Texas mapper I’d draw a district just for him at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.
Do we want Harris or Weber here? Harris clearly appears stronger but I don’t know if Weber is more conservative or not.
BTW, did Paul run one of his followers in the primary?
Excuse me I got Weber and Harris mixed up.
Randy Weber is the frontrunning State Rep who looks more likley to avoid an upset at the hands of Lampson and Felicia Harris is the other one.