[SeekAndFind]

Silver notes:

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Democrats have made various claims that Mr. Barrett might overperform his polls – citing, for instance, what they say is a superior turnout operation.

These claims need to be weighed against the long actuarial odds of a candidate who is down by this amount in the consensus of polls coming back to win at the last minute.

Campaigns that are down by about this margin in the polls often say that there is some dynamic that the polls are not capturing. Sometimes they are making reasonable arguments, and sometimes they are just spinning. But either way, these factors are rarely enough to allow the candidate to overcome the deficit. The exceptional cases are often remembered precisely because they are rare events.

It could be that Mr. Barrett does overperform his polls, but not by enough to win. A benchmark for a superior turnout operation is that it might typically be worth an additional two or three points – fewer than the six points by which he now trails Mr. Walker in the average of surveys.

[Jet Jaguar]

Bump

[jwalsh07]

I think there are lots of voters who tell pollsters they will vote for Barrett but in the confines of the voting booth will vote for Walker. I’d be surprised if Walker doesn’t outperform the average of the polls.

[Oatka]

It could be that Mr. Barrett does overperform his polls, but not by enough to win. A benchmark for a superior turnout operation is that it might typically be worth an additional two or three points – fewer than the six points by which he now trails Mr. Walker in the average of surveys.

If so, you can bet the cry of "LET THE RECOUNTS BEGIN!" will ring throughout the state - especially in the cities.