This time around, I'd expect the map to look mostly red, with a very highly-populated blue on the left fringe. Still adds up to an Obama win, but no longer a rout.I read or heard from Michael Barone about each state having their Bellwesther areas. As that area goes so goes the State as the saying goes. It was mentioned that Fresno area is California’s Bellweather area. So watch Fresno — any Fresnoites out there to check in?
With San Jose and San Diego waking up on their ballot initiative last Tuesday (a vote similar to Wis btw) I’d say the tides are turning here — but I sure don’t see it here in LA.
On the subject of stickers.......I have noticed several "Obama 2012" but not one "Obama-Biden 2012".
Best wishes to you and thanks to your sons for their service.
I’m in LA County, in the more conservative southwestern corner of it. No Romney yard signs or bumper stickers at all. Some Obama yard signs up already.
This election is not going to be a blow out as some of you assume. First of all it is June. Second of all, we have a Republican Candidate that nobody wants. Third of all our country is split. The reason that Walker did well is because the Democrats who voted for Walker (and yes there were many) thought it was bull crap that this was even happening. It is going to be a very close race.
While it is unlikely Obama will lose California, the GOP is going to do better than most think. Already the chances for Dems to pick up an extra Congressional seat has been set back when the targeted seat for a pick-up ended up with two Republicans in the runoff! The Dems are kicking themselves for their new idiotic voting system.
Also, Californians are seeing day in and day out the failures of their Democratrically-run state and more independents are turning against the Dems. Plus, illegal Mexicans have for years actually been going back home because there’s little or not work for them.
Plus, look at the votes in San Jose and San Diego. Voters there “got it.” The margins were staggering. I think someone could run for governor and other high offices on a platform of bringing public sector unions under control and cutting back benefits and win in California. Clearly the public is totally fed up with the fat cat public sector unions and workers.
Plus, the failure of the cigarette tax to pass shows the California is not completely and utterly lost. That was a good sign. The voters could see through the phony claim that the money would be used for cancer research. Yeah, right.
In my twice daily, 45 minute comute to work each day (albeit only 12 miles)I have yet to see a Romney bumper sticker. And I do pass the time by looking at bumpers! This is in the San Fernando Valley.
My hat’s off to conservatives who try to make a go of living out there. I will never move back.
So I see you are forecasting simultaneous 7.0 earthquakes in LA and SF on election day that will disrupt voting?
I live in Southern CA - born & raised in Riverside County the largest county in So Cal and is mostly conservative...California has a big conservative population BUT Los Angeles and San Fran totally negate this. Oh well the weather ROCKS. ;)
You were in Orange County. One of the very few conservative places in the state.
Yet you are right in that California will not be the wide spread vote for Obama as the DNC would like. Dude is desperate. Let's hope and pray though that you are right.
Mittens’s time and money would be much better invested in the toss-up states, instead of on some California hail-mary mission.
This time around, I'd expect the map to look mostly red, with a very highly-populated blue on the left fringe. Still adds up to an Obama win, but no longer a rout.
Heard a surprising election day story last night from a friend in downtown Los Angeles who recently became a citizen and is voting in his first presidential primary. His local polling place was on the border of Skid Row and as he was walking to it a Black homeless man pushing a shopping cart of his belongings came up and asked my friend where to go vote. Turned out my friend wasn’t correct on the location and the homeless man found it and chided my friend a bit about the mislocation. As they entered, my friend about fell over as the homeless man went straight to the sole Republican booth to vote! Ha! Side note - I persuaded my friend to register Republican when he became a citizen ;-)
“I don’t think California will be as Easy a Win For 0bama as He Thinks”
Obama will carry California with 55-60% of the vote, easily, without breaking a sweat.
Same for states such as Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, possibly Connecticut (my state).
California has more than a majority of “true believers”. It doesn’t matter if the social order has broken down, that they have no fuel for their vehicles, no electricity for their homes, no order in their streets — the will STILL be blaming “the evil conservatives”, the “greedy Republicans”, and the “cruel capitalists” to their very last breaths.
It’s a shoo-in for the Usurper. That’s not to say that there isn’t a strong strain of conservatism left in the California electorate and millions of voters who detest 0bummer. San Diego and Orange counties used to be strongly conservative, especially Orange. But that has been diluted by illegal aliens who vote (remember what happened to B-1 Bob Dornan) and the hands-out entitlement crowd. The central valley is still conservative but not populous enough to offset LA, with its huge population, and home to millions of libs, helped by San Francisco knee-jerk libs. It’s just too much to overcome.
Lilly white San Clemente hardly represents the millions of minorities who populate SoCal.
San Clemente is in the OC, an island of conservatism in a bigger minority driven voting demographic.