Has anyone mentioned how much the tax will be? I have heard comments all day from people saying, “Well, if I don’t want to have health insurance, the fine will still be cheaper than health insurance would cost.” Really?? How do we know that??
So, this is what will happen:
1. Many employers will find that their penalties for failing to provide insurance will cost far less than their insurance premiums. They will therefore cancel their insurance and dump their employees on the exchanges.
2. Their employees, particularly young employees, realizing that they will be able to buy "insurance" if they get sick and also realizing that the penalty will cost less than insurance, will opt for the penalty.
3. The number of Americans with insurance will actually decline and the inusred pool will be sicker.
4. Premiums will therefore rise from their already high levels.
5. More companies will throw their employees onto the exchanges.
6. Even more people will opt to pay the penalty.
7. Pretty much the only people with insurance will be the really sick (who will have purchased it just after becoming really sick) and those high income earners whose premiums are less than 2.5% of their income, the number of whom which will become progressivly smaller as the insured pool becomes progressivley smaller and sicker.
8. Seniors will become really unhappy with the changes to Medicare Advantage plans.
9. Hospitals will charge more for their services as a smaller percentage of their ER patients have insurance.
10. Premiums will increase again to account for the higher hospital costs.
11. The government will use all of these problems as a reason to institute national health care financed by yet another tax increase on "the rich," which by then will be defined as pretty much anyone with a job paying more than $100,000 per year.