[Vigilanteman]

To your credit, I seriously considered ranking Virginia third, after Florida and Ohio. As you correctly pointed out, Obama had a bigger margin of victory in Virginia (6.3%) than either Florida (2.8%) or Ohio (4.6%).

In the end, however, I weighted Virginia higher based less on historical voting history in presidential elections, but the solid GOP win in the last governor's race, the popularity of the GOP governor in Virginia as compared to his counterparts in Ohio and Florida and how that translates into better organization and votes.

Yours is really the type of informed comment which I welcome on this thread versus the usual cut and paste garbage which gives the impression that the whiners and bed wetters outnumber the thinkers and analyzers.

[PAConservative1]

Thanks.

I think Romney has Florida in the bag. If Obama could only win it by <3% in a great year like 2008, I feel like there’s no way he could have a realistic shot now. Plus, Obamacare is toxic there. Ohio is more sketchy, but it should almost surely go to Romney if the election is close. Like your analysis, I think NH and VA are the lynchpins.