Simon wins by default.
What is meant by that is if a free market is left alone by the socialist (left or right), this outcome would have been realized already and not after we have to pick up the mess that socialism has created.
It seems that socialism is hell bent upon keeping the reality of freedom from happening.
Just to clarify:
If the bet was made without socialism in the mix, Simon wins.
If it’s the inverse of that, and total socialism reigns, Ehrlich wins, because there would be no exploration of the necessary minerals, due regulations.
I think we are uncomfortably too near the later scenario.