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To: MindBender26
I agree that it's early. Since 2004, I've been putting out this analysis at best on a weekly basis, in order to show the movement in polls over time.

I'm starting now so we can see how the race progresses over the months. We also need to know where the areas of opportunity are.

I do look at poll bias, by doing what-if analysis that shifts the poll results by various factors, and seeing the effects on the Electoral College vote. I did that in my last report, but not on this one.

-PJ

22 posted on 07/04/2012 8:20:53 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you can vote for President, then your children can run for President.)
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To: Political Junkie Too

You do a great job and thanks. You also truly do deserve sidebar mention.

What might be valuable, if it is even feasible, would be to look at campaign emphasis, news highlights, and major events shaping the public opinion. It would help give insights into why polls are moving.

I recall watching McCain fumble, but having the media really highlight it toward the end of the campaign. They savaged Sarah right from the start. Biden and Obama got a pass.


25 posted on 07/04/2012 8:40:56 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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