Posted on 07/08/2012 6:06:48 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
Yes, agree. I hear all the time that a War with Iran, which would be the mother of all October surprises, would guarantee an Obama re-election - - really? The first thing that happens under that scenario is 8 dollar gas. Yeah, that's a winner for Obama. /s
If I was in Louisiana I would send him a friendly courteous respectable e-mail suggesting that very same idea.
A very good suggestion indeed.
US Law? You mean like something the Supreme Court said? I don't know . . who cares? The Law, AFAIK is written in Article 2 Sect 1 of USC. That isn't good enough? Well . . try this - any state governor, expressing the Will of The People (the individual) simply refuses to authorize a particular candidate from entering onto the state ballot. How does that work for you?
Portman WHO????
I'm a politically-educated freeper. If someone was ready to hand me a million dollars in cash on the spot if I could describe what Portman-Who looks like, I'd be unable to do so. I'm dead serious.
Leni
I don’t agree. I can see blanket amnesty and a total forgiveness of all student loans just about doing it.
My sister was one of those “Bush is an idiot” people when she pulled the lever for Obama in 2008. When I recently asked her who she was going to vote for in November, she said Romney. When I asked her why. She said “Obama is an idiot”. That says it all.
It would almost be better for the Democrats to keep the sorry nest that they've built for themselves.
The only card BO has is the threat of the "mean old GOP": "Vote for me or they will reverse all MY hard work. They will take away your contraception and make you pay your mortgage, etc...."
Unfortunately, this will resonate with many "suburban moms" - as well as many of the other above-listed "classes".
Whereas “a naturalized citizen” meant someone born in another country who had to go through a legal process to gain citizenship.
Rubio is not "naturalized". So why isn't he "natural born"? I did a quick search about this. I couldn't find anything in the Constitution, or any Supreme Court ruling, that would imply that he isn't "natural born".
Don't get me wrong. I sure wish the Founders had said this: A natural born citizen is one who is a citizen of the USA as of this signing, or one who was born ALONG WITH HIS PARENTS in the USA.
That would be a great safeguard against foreign influence, which is exactly what is what the Founders intended.
But unfortunately, the Founders did not mention parents at all. So I'm curious about your thoughts on this. Why do you mention Rubio’s parents?
This article has been posted about once a month for a while now ... goes back at least a couple months.
It was dead on when it was first posted, and it remains dead on. Undecided’s will break decisively for Romney and a significant of weak Obama supporters will not vote or switch.
The election is over. It’s been over for 2 months. That’s why Obama is trying to cram 4 years (the second half of his expected stay) of Marxism all into the final four months of his first and only term. “Hurry the Revolution” is his call to arms, now the mere whine of a petulant narcissistic teenage girl. Apologies to girls. He needed 4 more years for the plan to work, for sufficient crisis. He had no other plan.
It’s over. It’s not going to be close enough for them to pull out Fraud&Chad’s Election Recipe’s book. Start thinking about what you want to do once Romney is in, whether you like him or not.
It’s time to do what’s possible to make sure we take the Senate, giving Romney a rather large gun. Since he’s not the best at confrontation or moving the country via oratory, he’ll be really effective to the extent that he has a double barreled rifle pointed outward with no barrels pointed inward. (SCOTUS being a loose cannon, to beat an anology to death)
IT’S OVER IT’S OVER IT’S OVER IT’S OVER IT’S OVER. DID I SAY IT’S OVER. IT’S OVER. OVER. IT. IS. OVER.
Let us not forget the ODDS MAKERS also said OBAMACARE would
taken down!!!! HA!!!!!
Let us not forget the ODDS MAKERS also said OBAMACARE would
taken down!!!! HA!!!!!
Obama will:
1. win almost all the black vote
2. Win 75% of all other minorities
3. Add that to the fact that he probably will win a vast majority of those on government entitlements, which is a rapidly growing constituency.
4. Conservative support will be tepid.
To me this is a forumula for victory for the punk POTUS (God help us)
Portman won by 71% in Ohio so he would probably help Romney in that state at least.
and I forgot No. 5. Dim fraud will run rampant in swing states. Bank on it!!!!
to be eligible to be president of the united states, you have to be a natural born american citizen. which is born in the usa of two legal citizens of the usa, or one legal citizen of the usa, or born of two legal citizens of the usa in a usa military post.
I agree. Years of election-watching have also taught me than any predictions before Labor Day are usually a waste of time. This will be the most corrupt, fraudulent election ever. Complacency and a false sense of victory are our enemies.
Bush was not on the ballot in 2008. Your sister is an idiot.
Portman is a “moderate” also known around here as a RINO. If Romney does choose Portman it will give Gov. Kasich the opportunity to appoint a real conservative to that Senate seat.
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