[max americana]

You didn’t build that prediction...it was made by everyone else. (s/)

[South40]

The liberal will win. It’s guaranteed.

[rightcoast]

Here is a corrected link to my RCP map - I had omitted Hawaii by simple oversight.

[The Duke]

Does this factor in Democrat voter fraud?

[103198]

A month and a half ago I told my wife and a small gathering of friends that my x+1 choice for Republican candidate will win in a blowout. I made the mistake of not posting it here. I stand by that prediction today.

[radpolis]

I have my map say 336-202 in favor of Romney.

And I don’t consider myself a self-deluded wishful thinker.

I wish it could be an even bigger blow out if there was some way Chris Christie could get a win for Romney in New Jersey.

But that is where I cross the line from possible into the realm of the absurd.

[nathanbedford]

Good work. I think your methodology is on the right track. Certainly, discarding registered voter polls is indispensable. I had also been thinking about your 65% rule for the undecideds. What have you done about the 4% or 5% who are turning up as third party?

Have you made any assumptions concerning turnout?

Why do you suppose that Colorado and Ohio, but not Virginia or Iowa, are too close to call? In other words, what is the margin which puts a state in one category but not in the other?

We know that both Pennsylvania and Ohio on election day will not be too close to call but will actually be called by actual votes. So the result will not be 270 for Romney it could be as high as 308 for Romney or as low as 232 with your analysis still controlling.

That means that in these very close states the results will actually be called and one side or another can very rapidly win or lose big. If we extend questionable projections to the Virginians and the Iowas, Romney is a very vulnerable, but if we consider, as you do, that Pennsylvania and certainly Wisconsin or perhaps even Michigan could go the other way, it is Obama who now looks vulnerable.

I think this latter scenario will be the one that actually plays out but is that belief more than just a hunch? I think this will be a wave election much like Ronald Reagan's victory in 1980 but I want to be wary of mere wishful thinking. I am not usually a Pollyanna in these matters, I believe that if the Republicans can win this one it will only be a one time aberration from the demographic norm caused by Obama's ham-fisted overreach. I am on record on these threads years in advance in predicting the debacles of 2006 and 2008. But I think the forces that dominated in 2010 will be no less powerful in 2012, although I concede that Obama in a presidential race will be able to turn out his base with more success than was possible in 2010. I still think that the balance of forces generating turnout will be with the Republicans.

Therefore, I think it will break at the end for Romney. I think the sweep could very well include Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and perhaps even beyond. I believe Romney will easily be pulling crowds in excess of 20,000 by the time of the convention.

All of this subject to Romney avoiding gaffes and performing adequately in the debates and Obama not contriving an October surprise.

Thanks for a good job.

[Jyotishi]

Thanks for your prediction but does it take liberal dirty tricks into account?

[svcw]

I have an idea, wait until after the conventions, as who knows what might happen, regardless a liberal is going win in November.

[tsowellfan]

Hopefully we will do better than that. Which blue leaning states do you suggest we should try to move pink or red?

[1035rep]

“For this analysis, I was more conservative and assume that 65% of undecideds will ultimately vote for Romney.”

Rasmussen: Thursday, July 19, 2012
Among Uncommitted Voters, Obama Job Approval Is At 29%

[Rockingham]

I think that Romney is poised to win by a surprisingly substantial margin. The economy is weak and tilting back into recession, with virtually all the economic indicators of political consequence now against Obama.

Bear in mind that being based on general public sentiment instead of reliable models of likely voters, almost all of the public polling now overstates Obama's support. Viewed though in the context of an electorate called to pass judgment on a faltering incumbent, Obama is polling at a level that is better than Jimmy Carter but similar to George H. W. Bush.

Moreover, Romney and his campaign seem to be getting better and more willing to push back and take the fight to Obama. Meanwhile Obama seems gaffe prone as the campaign process gives us glimpses of his radical politics by forcing him off-teleprompter.

Obama's rhetoric and campaign spending suggest that he is desperate. I surmise that he has been told by his top campaign advisers that his reelection is not just in jeopardy but is becoming less likely by the month, with more campaign cash needed.

Obama's campaign strategy though has a fundamental weakness: in trying to mobilize his base publicly, Obama is also mobilizing his opposition. His approach to that problem is organizational, betting that his campaign will do better at getting supporters to the polls than the Romney and the GOP can do.

Yet even superior campaign efforts get swamped when public sentiment turns against the candidate. In such cases, many seeming supporters dragged to the polls defect once they get to the privacy of the voting booth.

The great imponderables are events, and especially that Obama has the power to redefine the race through the use of Presidential power. The US going to war with Iran in October could be Obama's ticket to reelection -- or to cementing his defeat for reelection into place.

[xzins]

I disagree.

I pretty much side with Rasmussen: Obama: 247 - Romney: 191 - Toss-up: 100

All of the toss-up states are too close to call, but that simply means that Romney must prevent Obama from taking only 23 of them. That’s not impossible, of course, but that does put Romney on the defensive.

If Romney could put pennsylvania or michigan in play that would really help him. Pennsylvania is numerically his best bet, but Michigan has a family connection. Choosing a dynamic VP from one of those 2 states might help him since he’s running well in other toss-up states, except in Ohio he’s only 2 down and in Virginia he’s only one down.

[GVnana]

From your lips to God’s ears.