[Political Junkie Too]

It's not just a 1% move, it's the probability associated with that move. Candidates within 1% of each other are a toss-up. A 1% move from +1% to +2% will change the race from toss-up to lean because the probability of winning jumps significantly.

-PJ

[beenaround]

a move of 1% is significant if viewed in terms of a % . IOW if a candidate was leading by 1 point anf the lead increased to 2 points that is a 100% improvement. However if the original numbers were 46-45 or 47-46 and they change 1 point the final results are still within the m.o.e. and may be attributable to “statitical noise”.

I have noticed Rasmussen occasionally, after sighting a candidate jumping to a 3-4 0r more point lead, will caution the difference may be to what he refers to as the statistical noise referred to above.

Rasmussen is good bought at this point in the election it isto early to put a lot of weight even in his numbers since I believe so many are yet to get engaged and there is a lot of time for minds to change despite the current very small number of people who say they are as yet undecided.