Posted on 07/26/2012 6:45:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Edited on 07/26/2012 8:18:45 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits dropped by 35,000 last week, a figure that may have been distorted by seasonal factors.
The Labor Department said Thursday that applications fell to a seasonally adjusted 353,000. That's down from a revised 388,000 the previous week and the biggest drop since February 2010.
The four-week average, a less volatile measure, declined 8,750 to 367,250. That's the lowest level since the end of March.
[snip]
Fixed it.
Wow! Only 353,000 people lost their jobs last week! That’s great!
Now consider that 353,000 is more than the entire population of most counties in the US.............
We always have to balance this with the OTHER side of the equation — HOW MANY FOUND JOBS?
The NET job creation/loss (hires minus layoffs) determines how well the economy is doing.
Even during the below 5% unemployment years of Dubya, there were over 200,000 first time unemployment claims every week. However, this was OFFSET with the overwhelming number of hires every week.
“Wow! Only 353,000 people lost their jobs last week! That’s great!”
But approx. 365,000 found new jobs last week also. We have to keep these numbers in perspective.
RE: We have to keep these numbers in perspective.
OK, here’s more perspective:
1) How many people have QUIT looking for jobs and are not counted among the unemployed?
2) How many new college and high school grads are entering the workforce?
Now consider that 353,000 is more than the entire population of most counties in the US.............
True but they you could consider that we have 300 million people or 110 million who work. That is why numbers can alway be distorted to sound good or bad.
The seaonal adjustment is out-of-whack for this week since automakers have not closed the plants like the seasonal adjustment is programmed to account for. (Normally they bump up employment by some amount to account for the plan shutdowns.) So the seasonal adjustment should have been adjusted as a result (IOW, they should NOT have adjusted employment up this week since the plants didn’t shut down). But, of course, that would make the actual corrected number closer to the 388,000 of last week, so they didn’t correct the seasonal adjustment.
This is NOT as good as it looks!
For the Independence Day week the number was down in the 350k range.
Here’s novel idea for Obama: Add more holidays to the calendar. That will drop the joblessness numbers for those holiday weeks.
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So, last week’s number was worse than reported and this weeks number will be revised upward.....again.
“OK, here’s more perspective:
1) How many people have QUIT looking for jobs and are not counted among the unemployed?
2) How many new college and high school grads are entering the workforce?”
If they’ve quit looking then they’re irrelevant and as for new skulls full of mush, I can see why they aren’t getting hired.
Only to be corrected next week to have been higher by say, oh, 10-15,000 but by then its old news, and must move on...
“OK, here’s more perspective:”
I’m in total agreement with you on the unrealistic meaning of the unemployment numbers, they are a joke, as are these weekly initial claims numbers, as stated in the article, July is a very tricky month. We will have to wait until August to get a better understanding of new layoffs.
The economy is facing some strong head winds, and I think the first quarter was Obama’s high water mark. Things will head down hill from now on.
"The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 337,059 in the week ending July 21, a decrease of 118,201 from the previous week. There were 369,207 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011. "
A 30% drop in actual numbers in 1 week? Obama is cooking the books.
However, the total number is still very high:
"The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 7 was 6,034,225, an increase of 280,405 from the previous week. "
“When applications consistently fall below 375,000, it typically suggests hiring is strong enough to pull the unemployment rate down”
Wow - under Bush it was 250,000, earlier this year it was 325,00, and now, suddenly it jumps to 375,000. Talk about lowering the bar to make the news look good.
To be quietly revised back up where it belongs next Thursday, as usual.
When does the upward revision come out?
The August, September and October job numbers will be completely fraudulent. They will try to create the illusion of a jobs recovery just as Americans are heading to the polls and the real numbers won’t come out until after the November election. The entire regime is corrupt.
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