Skip to comments.Three New Polls, More Bad News for Obama
Posted on 07/30/2012 5:00:07 PM PDT by Kaslin
Let's go in reverse order, from least to most alarming for Team Obama. First up is the new daily tracking poll from Rasmussen, which shows Mitt Romney surging to a three-point lead nationwide:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. Fifty-five percent (55%) favor repeal of the president’s health care law. Most (57%) say they haven’t yet been affected by the law, but concerns about cost continue to be the top priority for health care reform. Just 14% believe that today’s children will be better off than their parents. That’s the lowest level of optimism ever measured.
The topline of that survey is ephemeral and relatively unimportant. As I mentioned earlier, head-to-head numbers aren't salient at this juncture of the campaign. The piece about generational optimism is much more serious. In a previous post, we discussed Romney's emerging edge on economic issues, noting that Obama's gaping personality advantage is keeping him in the game. Two countervailing data points -- the NYT/CBS poll, which showed the president's favorability rating flipping upside-down, and this new survey (via Politico):
GOP nominee Mitt Romney has a slight advantage over President Obama on key measures of values, leadership and honesty, a new poll finds. The poll, conducted by The Hill, finds that 47 percent of voters say that Romney most shares their values, compared with 44 percent for Obama. The survey also finds that 48 percent of voters pick Romney as the stronger leader, versus 44 percent for Obama. Romney also edged out Obama on a measure of trust — with 46 percent calling Romney more trustworthy versus 44 percent for Obama. Obama generally performs well among measures of likability across most polls, but voters say that a presidential candidate's policies and ability matter more. Ninety-three percent of likely voters say that competence and policies matter more than likability. The numbers come in the wake of an onslaught of negative ads by Team Obama portraying Romney as a heartless corporate raider responsible for layoffs, outsourcing and tax secrecy. The numbers are a sign that those attempts to define Romney have largely failed to change the narrative in the race.
These results are essentially the opposite of Gallup's recent findings on personal and leadership qualities. One major factor? Gallup surveyed adults; The Hill polled likely voters. As election day draws closer, the latter category becomes king. While we're on the subject of Gallup, let's take a gander at their new numbers, which measure Americans' political priorities:
The top three items are right in Mitt Romney's wheelhouse, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll. He leads on job creation, deficits, and the economy. Romney can also point to his Olympics resume to illustrate his ability to extricate an enterprise from the throes of corruption and scandal. Pay special attention to what registers dead last on the list: Democrats' obsession with tax "fairness." Raising taxes on successful businesses and families would do absolutely nothing to address the item at the very top of the roster, job creation. In fact, it would be counter-productive, to the tune of 700,000 destroyed jobs. Let's have this debate.
UPDATE - Ed Morrissey points out that The Hill's poll has a partisan sample of R+1, which may be a tad generous. Then again, it's far less absurd than the D+7/8/9...12 samples we've seen from other pollsters. The 2004 presidential election electorate was split evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Given the marked shift in voter enthusiasm this year, the '04 model looks much more realistic than the '08 one.
As the summer moves along, look for Romney to get stronger along the way.
Yes he will
I saw a very discouraging chart yesterday from various polling organizations and electoral college results. Every single one of them showed Obama winning the majority of the electoral college vote.
Most State Polls are Old
We live in Kennesaw, GA. I just saw the Obama anti-Romney ad in which Romney sings ‘God Bless America”. It aired on SyFy channel. First presidential ad I’ve seen or heard here in Georgia.
And look for the slander, slurs, mud slinging attacks, outright lies and under the table tricks from the "Progressive" Marxist Democrats. That will be followed by some sort of "October Surprise". Valerie Jarrett is nowhere near through with her plan to destroy America. She will continue even if it means waking Obama up or calling him in off the golf course or from a fundraiser.
Did you see the one where they say that Ronald Reagan would want us to vote for the TSPLOST?
Yes, watch the Rasmussen state polls but check their dates.
And too many are within the margin-of-fraud, which is why they will say or do anything to kill photo ID rules.
Those pro-TSPLOST ads are really pathetic. I’m hearing it’s in trouble. I voted against it last Friday.
I will vote against it first thing tomorrow morning.
I’ll have my two 5 and 6 year old grandkids with me
to start educating them on how the system works.
I will vote against Tsplost tomorrow.
I think it’s dead.
The only true poll is an election without widespread Progressive voter fraud.
We're starting to see lots of Osama Obama ads on local Boston TV.They're directed at nearby New Hampshire (a swing state) not at Massachusetts (definitely not a swing state).We get the ad you mentioned *and* one about "women's health" (and we all know what *that* means).
Yet as the saying goes, “what does not kill you will only make you stronger”.
Before I fell asleep late last night, saw Greta in Israel interviewing Mitt Romney. He sure sounded like he is becoming more and more like a President.
Look, the Dems/Socialists/Communists are simply are getting very, very, desperate because Obama has no good record to defend to begin with.
With the economy being in the mess that it is and IT IS the ECONOMY that decides who wins the White House, and I did see for a little while last night Greta’s interview of Mitt Romney, he sure looks more and more like he is going to be the next President.
He better get Stronger In Ohio,Pennsylvania, Michigan,Florida or we could Have Bush Gore in Reverse.
His speech the other day in Israel sounded very presidential
Here is part 1 of the interview
He will and is in the process. Got to remember that it is still summertime, hight of vacation season.
Also too, all the efforts in attacks on Romney are starting to fail also. Obama has NO GOOD record to defend. Also for all his faults, Romney being elected would at least his feet can be put to the fire.
I am afraid if Obama is re-elected, we will very well see a second American revolution.
As I have said in another post, right now, this being summertime, the middle of vacation season, plus I do add, with the olympics going on, people are not paying so much attention to poliics. Even for myself, with my recent health scare, I have slowed down on in interest. This is the time that Mr. Romney is growing stronger and in statue.
Speaking about the olympics, remember, it was Mitt Romney who first burst unto the scene when the IOC had fallen into a very major scandal that could have killed it and the 2002 winter olympics in Salt Lake City Utah. Mr. Romney has been credited with saving those olympics.
Also Obama is looking more and more like he is in BIGTIME TROUBLE by the day.
Polls this far out only show trends. A plus three by any candidate is nothing to write home about. Remember, Jimmah Carter was up by 10 points in late September 1980, and we all know how that turned out.
What is significant are the White House's internal polling at this juncture in the campaign. They must see something that has them spooked (no, that's not racist). Their campaign is spending a large amount of money on ads targeting black voters (check out late night cable tv).
If 0bama needs to advertise to his base, something is terribly wrong.