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To: blam

“Treasury bonds are priced for the end of the world.”

It depends on whether the end comes in fire (inflation) or ice (deflation, with a stable currency). Bonds are priced for the latter.

In the tradition of “fighting the last war”, or investing by looking in the rear mirror, the big disaster most focus on is the Great Depression, rather than Weimar Germany.


11 posted on 08/05/2012 4:55:45 PM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
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To: Pearls Before Swine
...rather than Weimar Germany

Weimar was an interesting economics study.

The German deutschmark was actually a pretty stable currency immediately following WWI and before the Treaty of Versailles.

German currency was/is debt-based, so it was backed by the sale of German treasury bonds.

The Treaty of Versailles stipulated that the Allies must be paid war reparations by Germany in their respective currencies.

This immediately had the effect of making German bonds extremely difficult to sell. This, in turn, forced the German government to change the value of existing currency - thus creating the eventual hyper-inflation.

The lesson to be learned is that countries only suffer hyper-inflation when they owe extremely large amounts of debt denominated in a currency which is not their own.

This is why the United States will not see hyper-inflation (we're seeing big time deflation right now...masked by deficit spending). We have massive debt, but it is all denominated in our own currency.

13 posted on 08/05/2012 5:32:09 PM PDT by politicket (1 1/2 million attended Obama's coronation - only 14 missed work!)
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