RE: it would in fact come down to 3 or 4 states.
Ohio and Florida are the two big swings states. What are the other two on your mind?
I think Romney also needs to win Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina. Lots of Democrats statewide in each of those states, and lots of “educated” whites that voted for him last time. These states make me nervous and Romney has to win them all.
Romney doesn’t have a lot of margin of error. Then again, obama is definitely on the defensive.
But I am personally fearful that he can win enough of these small, sometimes left-leaning states to hang on.