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To: Aevery_Freeman
Why the shifting make up of the sample space then? That number is well known at federal, state and local levels.

Two answers. (1) That number isn't as well known as you might think, if you're referring to the dem/rep/ind breakdown of the population; the number changes based on economic conditions and other news and cannot be assumed static. (2) The samples are random, and fluctuations in those numbers should be expected with random samples - part of the reason for the +/- 3% uncertainty bounds normally reported for a poll of 1000 people. Some pollsters adjust for the difference between their sample demographics and the population, but that runs the risk of missing the fact that party identification is actually changing. Others intentionally slant their samples, but the sleaze in some polling is not the only reason for these results.

38 posted on 08/09/2012 6:21:03 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: Pollster1
The numbers of votes cast is known and "reliable" and a fair indication of likely voters providing a base percentage - any deviation from this percentage involves a supposition. It also eliminates the independent vote just as opening the box eliminated the ambiguity of a live or dead Shrodinger's cat.

I also understand that a sample of 1000 yields an uncertainty of +/- 3.16% but that does not change the fact that Others intentionally slant their samples, but the sleaze in some polling is not the only reason for these results."

Maybe I'm paranoid but I sometimes feel the media attempts to manipulate rather than report.

41 posted on 08/09/2012 6:37:22 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (All Y'all White Peoples is racist!)
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