[InterceptPoint]

These are the results when registered voters are asked ...

Note: REGISTERED VOTERS.

The more accurate LIKELY VOTERS will, according to our ace enemy and almost ace analyst Nate Silver of the NYT, add 2 points to the R column. That would make it Romney 49, Obama 45. I like that.

Plus you can give Romney another point for the UNDECIDED voters who will mostly break for the challenger. We are looking good right now.

[LS]

Got that right. Consider the polling in the last two weeks:

Northern VA poll that showed Zero up 4 in a region he won by 23 in 08;

Seniors poll of AARP members in FL showing Romney with a lead (!)

Yesterday's "swing state" poll showing Romney up in OH, FL, VA, and only trailing in CO.

Rasmussen WI, Romney up

Rasmussen FL, Romney up

Rasmussen OH, Romney tied

Rasmussen 9/10 days, Romney up (Today Ras has Zero up one, probably a statistical variation)

And, on top of all this, the Franklin Marshall poll showed ZEro up 6 in PA . . . after oversampling Dems by 13%!!

Now we have a two point Gallup lead in REGISTERED voters, which means in all likelihood it means a four point lead, as you say.

Throw in Senate trends (Thompson up big in WI, Mandel tied in OH---the only bad news is Mack down seven in FL) and this is, yes, shaping up as a blowout.

[Go Gordon]

Also note the polling ended May 6th.

[Go Gordon]

Note: REGISTERED VOTERS.

Also note the polling ended May 6th.