They’re not diddling the model output.
They’re just ignoring the models that don’t fit their preconceived FL hit notions. Starting Thursday evening the models began to drift westward, one by one. Friday they began swiping back and forth between SELA and FL. Instead of saying something like ‘everyone between Houston and Tampa need to pay attention!’ they essentially ignored anything west of Mobile Bay. Beginning yesterday the models began proving west writ large. The only major outlier at that point was the Euro. Still they said nothing about SELA. It wasn’t even in the cone of concern. What they DID say regarding models impacting their forecast path/landfall was ‘keeping continuity of forecast’ or some such happy horsehockey. In other words, not moving the forecast too much for each update was MORE important than alerting people that there appeared to be TWO important model solutions and get ready. This morning, there were essentially TWO sets of model forecasts. One to the FL panhandle/Mobile Bay, the other to SELA from Vermillion Bay/Breton.
But, local officials, having been burned in much the same way with Katrina (VIPR took the K storm to FL) are already taking matters into their own hands. They’re closing flood gates and declaring states of emergency right now.
Let’s just hope ALL the models are wrong and it goes to Texas or Mexico. Gently.
The last GFS run puts it right at the mouth of the river, slogs it along the coastline moving west and then inland somewhere near Vermillion bay or a little west. WORST case scenario. Let’s hope it’s just wrong.
The boot of La needs at least 60 hrs to evac. They might not have that by the time the NHC gets around to deciding maybe the evil pubbies won’t get hit after all. And if you don’t think government weather science has an agenda and is unbiased perhaps you’ve missed all the ‘great’ unbiased international science wrt global warming?
Glad I am not the only one noticing this crap! I will admit to having my tin foil hat riveted to my head of late, but this is pretty blatant. I still remember last year and that storm that went up the east coast and the horrible and political reporting from TWC that it was going to destroy New York....blahblanblah.
Who can we trust at this point? I still like and trust Joe Bastardi most of the time.
We're keeping our on in Isaac, living about halfway between Baton Rouge and New Orleans.