While the model is heartening, this election and 2008 have something the other years did not. Barack Obama is black. That means that a lot of people voted for him in 2008 because of novelty, racial solidarity, and LOTS of white guilt. Many of them knew nothing about him at all. It didn’t matter. It could well be that nothing will matter this time. Remains to be seen. I doubt that guilt is infinite, but I’m starting to wonder.
Those still subject to "white guilt" are far more likely to vote for Obama over the telephone than they are in the confines of a voting booth.
I submit that Zero's percentage of the actual vote will be at least 2-3 pts lower than his last poll result.
I agree. No major party has ever run a presidential candidate with so little experience. If he’s not black, it’s a joke.
But voters are living this experience in their own lives. In the workplace or at school, they are told they have to select the black, Hispanic, disabled or mentally ill candidate for the sake of “diversity.”. The selectee may then be held to a lower standard because a manager will be accused of discrimination if they try to correct poor behavior or performance. Others who are not so protected have to pick up the slack.
Voters see the Department of Justice refusing to prosecute civil rights violations by blacks or enforce the immigration laws against Hispanics.
Thus, I would argue that the overall voting population is Conditioned against holding a minority president to the same standards as these models held past, white incumbents. Whether because the voters are minorities who wish to retain these “gains,” or whites who fear being labeled as bigots.
a lot of people voted for him in 2008 because of novelty, racial solidarity, and LOTS of white guilt.
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That will NOT be the case this time. Every person I know who was foolish enough to vote for Obama last time out of emotions say they will NOT make that mistake again. They feel deceived and betrayed. As far as the Blacks: The new and the novelty is gone. They’ve had their Black Prez and he has not produced for the brothas like they thought he would. He will still get 95% of the Black vote, but there will not be as many Black votes this time. They will NOT clear out the jail houses, crack houses and HO houses for Obama this go ‘round. Trust me on that.