I eyeball polls expecting a 34(R) / 34(D) / 32(I) breakdown.
Basically, I expect Republicans to turn out in AT LEAST equal numbers to Democrats this time. If a poll suggests otherwise, I immediately subtract the difference to get to equality of party.
If I adjust this poll accordingly, with it’s baked in +6% Democrat sample, their results flip flop from 52% D / 46% R to 46% D / 52% R.
Essentially CNN got it exactly backwards.
But that’s what you’d expect, isn’t it?
Yeah, the only one that really bothers me is Rasmussen.