I get the idea that 2008 turnout levels have changed because Obama is less popular and the republicans won in 2010.
But, I’ve seen articles here claiming that use of 2008 levels for black turnout is wrong. I know all the arguments, I’m not convinced black support for Obama will decrease, I think black turnout may increase.
-——I think black turnout may increase.——
I think black turnout will decrease. There simply is not the intensity of historical precedent driving the average black to go vote. There will be many who will find an excuse to not vote while publicly saying I would have voted for him.
There are rational black people who will see the light and vote for Romney this time.
The actual breakdown will be hidden by the press and may even be lied about to save face.
Exactly! The bias polls showing Obama way ahead is not so much to discourage republican voters as it is to ENCOURAGE democrat voters.
Another reason for the bias polling by the MSM is the fact that they refuse to acknowledge publically and report that their man Obama is not as popular as they wish.
Where do you live? I live in the Philadelphia area and I can say with absolute certainty there is no way Black turnout in my area will increase for this election. Black people are as de-energized as the rest of us. The economy has hit them hard. Last time around, you could not drive through a Black neighborhood without seeing nearly every house and car papered with Obama love notes. This time, very, very few.
Where do you live? I live in the Philadelphia area and I can say with absolute certainty there is no way Black turnout in my area will increase for this election. Black people are as de-energized as the rest of us. The economy has hit them hard. Last time around, you could not drive through a Black neighborhood without seeing nearly every house and car papered with Obama love notes. This time, almost none.
No way black turnout will increase this year.
I live in Atlanta and the only Obama yard signs I’ve seen are in white neighborhoods.
I work in a large government office building with majority black co-workers. Last Friday I walked around the parking lot during lunch to check bumper stickers. I passed by hundreds of cars and the only Obama sticker was on a white guy’s car—next to his I Support Gay Marriage bumper sticker.
In 2008 there were a lot of Obama stickers.