Pennsylvania came fairly close to tipping the Republican way in 2004. We sure went heavily for Clinton and Obama though. I guess we need 5.2% of the electorate to change their vote from D to R to flip it this time. It sounds easier than it probably is. I wonder if having Christie next door in NJ helps soften up the heavily Democrat eastern side on the Republican brand?
2008 Obama +10.3
2004 Kerry +2.5
2000 Gore +4.2
1996 Clinton +9.2
1992 Clinton +9.1
I doubt it. I'd like to think so, but I doubt it. And your numbers convince me even more that it's a lost cause.
As I was telling my wife last night, the only reason we have a Republican governor is that the state has odd year elections, and the DNC won't spend the money to drag their core constituents out to the polls. If we had even-year elections, we'd be Massachusetts with Springsteen and Snooki.
I'm somewhat puzzled by Romney's ad strategy. I haven't seen an ad -- but while he isn't going to carry the state, he must raise an awful lot of money here and in NYC. How much air time can you possibly buy in Iowa? I'm just clueless as to what he's doing.
Since he owns a Harvard law degree and a Harvard MBA, I have hopes that he knows what he's doing. I just don't. I suppose that's a good thing?