I personally believe that Rass has ‘altered’ his special sauce over the past couple of weeks. As good of a pollster as he’s shown to be, his methodology does have some bias from time to time. I remember back in 2009 or so when Rass was the first pollster to show Obama’s approval dropping like a rock, Axelrod called Rass out on it and suddenly Obama’s numbers started getting better.
Bottom line is that EVERY pollster is human.
Rasmussen changed his sample from R+1 to D+1 in the past month. Gallup has it D+4. And they also changed the blacks from 11% to 13% (per Axelrod).
I think it will be a dead heat in turnout (like 2004). My only fear is Rs getting depressed from the constant media barrage of “Obama is a lock” meme.
A big hope is the rumors of Romney/RNC investing heavily in a ground game - hence the lack of spending on ads.
We go through this every single election cycle. Scott Rasmussen is our best buddy when we like the results of his polls, and, if we don’t, then he’s suddenly become a sellout. Whether we like his results or not, he’s generally about as accurate a pollster as you’re going to get. Personally, in a presidential election cycle I don’t pay much attention to any of them until after the debates.
You are correct and I’m just saying but, perhaps Rasmussen is adjusting to reflect a higher dem and specifically higher black turn out, as it develops.
Can we win this? Absolutely. But white voters and specifically conservative voters need to know they are in the fight of their lives.