[smoothsailing]

Obama has a one- or two-point lead in each of the Key Three States in this year’s election, Ohio, Florida and Virginia. The president is also up by three in Wisconsin and up two in Nevada. Romney is now up two in Colorado and ahead by three in Iowa and New Hampshire. All these states remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

All tossups go to Romney because it means Obama is polling under 50%, at least according to Dick Morris.

[LS]

Absentee voting in OH so far is crushing it, performing way above 08 levels while Zero is performing waaaaay below 08. ANY poll showing Dems at or above 08 levels is a joke.

Based on this, Romney will win OH with some degree of comfort---again, keeping in mind that this is early and anything can change. But what we are seeing is across the board in all ounties, so we won't be blindsided by an outlier.