Posted on 09/28/2012 7:40:27 AM PDT by LS
Have Cuyahoga Dems caught up significantly or is it still pretty even with 6 percent behind?
in virginia there is an ad replaying the 47% over and over and over.
the MSM NPR CSPAN all are referencing it.
NPR, suprise, are saying the election is over now.
So the media will first ignore this, then say it’s misleading because relatively small amounts of voting are done ahead of time, then what will they say when it keeps up? I’m thinking they’ll revert to ignoring it again.
Absentee ballots don’t neccessarily indicate the race, but these numbers validate basically what everyone who’s got a few neuron firing knows.. the polls are CRAP.
With this sort of early balloting, so far, it indicates that the Romney GOTV effort is indeed doing its job and far more effective than McCain’s in ‘08.
Disillusionment with Obama makes any model calling for anything close to 08 numbers a pipe dream... Breakdown will be far closer to ‘10 than ‘08 and likely even higher R than ‘10.
Folks are going to crawl over broken glass and salt flats to vote against Obama... the same cannot be said remotely for those who are going to vote for him.
Here is something that might tick some Ohio people off:
It started right here on freerepublic and made breitbart:
Another freerepublic victory.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2936580/posts
WIN ONE FOR THE FIBBER: BIDEN MISLEADS OHIO ON COLLEGE FOOTBALL CAREER
Freakin’ amazing to see this.
I just this minute heard Chuck Todd on NBC radio news claiming that early voting across the nation is supposed to be heavy, and that this is great news for Obama, ‘cause 60-some percent of early voters are going to be Democrats.
We’re living in parallel realities...but only one of them can be REAL.
LS, thank you! I almost want to say “ssssssssshhhhh”,,don’t let the enemy know the truth. I prefer they stay blissfully stupid in their fantasy of winning....then again,
I am a fan of the truth after all.
I don’t think this really means anything yet. The dims know how important OH is. They will roll out their voters to the polls like they did in NV last year.
People get a lot more enthused to vote Team Kenya when a union thug is on their doorstep/job site offering a ride to the polls. So I think it’s way to soon to draw any conclusions from early voting results.
Here in Virginia, I have seen the Romney “baby” ad. It is a good, effective ad, and it is playing on HGTV and Food Network, so it is designed to target women.
Disagree. I have my doubts about the “majority of people” seeing this election as anything different then the last one. We’re exposed to people who are passionate about thier country, it’s history and it’s survival. Most don’t know a damn thing about economics or history and are too concerned over trivial BS like “Honey Boo Boo”. And a lot don’t realize the importance of this election.
There are also a lot of conservatives who will in no way, shape or form vote for Romney. Those non votes need to be made up for somewhere. Exposing these numbers will make some apathetic.
True, but it is a lot easier to round up voters now than on election day. I’d rather have our voters in the bag now, then we can focus on independents at election time.
Do the DIMs hold back the ‘fraudulent’ absentee ballots until they know how many they need to sway the election?
Are your comparisons vs 2008 early voting or vs 2008 all votes ?
There is also a problem with timing. Early trends aren’t the total even for early voting/vote by mail, as its entirely possible that the early returns are normally Republican-heavy, at least by the norms of the population in question. The proper time for a trend analysis would be when the early vote window closes.
What we know of Republican behavior is that they are as a population average more responsible and diligent across all metrics, and would be expected to be more likely to do their duty as soon as they can.
Please add me to your list, thanks!
How does what you’re seeing/hearing on the ground differ from 08?
Obama has lsot the Blue Dog (blue collar) dems, they are openly stating in polling, 20%+ that they will not vote for Obama. This being the democrats biggest constiutency, tells you all you need to know that the polls are indeed nonsensical. Obama has no prayer with independents and will lose them at roughly 2-1 margin, and with 20% of the largest part of his base openly admitting they are going to vote for the opponent, the very idea this race is close is patently absurd.
I am not someone who easily dismisses polls, and I want every to fight like its a 50-50 race, but the math just doesn’t add up with the numbers any of these polls are showing.
I do believe that Obama on his best day will not get over 42-43% of the popular vote. I also believe that with the sole exception of MN no state he won by less than 55% of the popular vote in ‘08 he will carry this time.
Finally while I do believe this will be a route, I don’t think the EC will reflect how bad of a routing because of the population breakdown.. For example... Barack will win NY, but he will likely win it by say 55% of the vote, not 63%. That’s a huge swing! with about 75,000 voters per point a 7 - 8 point fall represents 525,000 to 600,000 fewer votes for him in that state, but he will still carry the EC votes... same with California While He carried 61% in ‘08 he will likely only get 55 - 57% of the vote this election, thats a 4-6% swing, and with 130,000 voters per point, that’s a swing of 520,000 to 780,00 votes, but the 55 EC votes will still go Obama.
The population distirbution will make sure the EC doesn’t look remotely as bad as the overall vote will be.. but I truly do not believe Obama could hit 45% of the overall vote on his best day.
Time will tell but the very idea this is a 1-2 point race is nonsense to me.. Not saying all the polls are being manipulated, though its certain that some are, I’m just saying the polls are not capturing for whatever reason, what is going on on the ground.
Those are good numbers, though I expected the margin to be tighter than +6 in Cuyahonga (did I spell that right?)
I mean, really, isn’t it all about closing the margins in the populated counties as opposed to smashing them in the rural ones?
Forgive me for cluelessness, which I admit -
Are we past the deadline for Ohio absentee ballot requests ?
If so your numbers are important and telling.
I answered my own question - apparently in Ohio you can request an absentee ballot up to three days prior to the election. If this is incorrect please confirm.
So the numbers are interesting but far from definitive. There is apparently a month to go for absentee ballot requests. There is plenty of scope for a late Democrat surge in absentee ballots.
What is interesting is that the absentee ballot requests seem to be running very heavy, if the deadline is still so far off.
I have read hundreds of “data points” stories over the past several months. And my mind keeps telling me that the change rolling average is about minus 6-7% from 2008. With that, he loses.
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