Posted on 09/28/2012 7:40:27 AM PDT by LS
No one understands this subject better than he does, and he is, for some reason, remaining relatively silent on the massive amount of polling information out there right now.
Keep an eye on Lucas, Summit, Franklin, & Cuyahoga.
Romney may not win any of these counties, but in these counties are the votes needed to win the state. Obama won these by huge margins and if Romney can take 6-7 percent away from 08 votes then Ohio will be red on Nov. 6th.
Any information on Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, & Florida?
“Exposing these numbers will make some apathetic.”
No they won’t.
I have requested an absentee ballot.
I register as an independent - a lot of times there isn’t a Republican candidate bothering to run for offices in Cuyahoga county.
If request an R ballot, IIRC, I don’t get to pick from the list of Ds for a given office. At least as an independent, I get to choose the lesser of several evils and have an influence there beyond party affiliation.
I don’t know how much this sways ballot requests for others.
There we go with that 6% number again. The economy is issue #1. These numbers tell the tale.
There was a piece on Dem registrations in swing states on Fox or CNN yesterday. WAY down.
I was deeply concerned...../s
I don’t think so albie. Our side desperately needs to know that the pollsters are lying, WHY they are lying, and that more than ever they need to vote. I don’t see one iota of complacency on our side. My concern is the “purists” who back people like Goode and at 1-2% could swing an election.
Here we go with that 6-7% change number again.
From this: “Poll Shows Romney Winning High Water Mark for Libertarian Vote”
2008 2012
McCain 71% Romney 77% +6%
Obama 27% Obama 20% -7%
thanks for the update.
Absentee ballot requests for Cuyahoga for general election between Obama and McCain 11/4/08 for the entire election timeframe (8/1/08-11/4/08):
Dems: 120,000 requests
Repubs: 35,000 requests
Over 90% of ballot requests are actually returned. Why anyone would request a ballot and not return it boggles my mind?
Now today for Cuyahoga absentee ballot requests (8/1/12-9/28/12):
Dems: 87,000 requests
Repubs: 38,000 requests
This could either mean that we just decided to vote early or we’re more motivated or more enthused and dems less enthused. But I don’t see any way to spin the numbers as anything other than favorable to Romney. Cuyahoga is where it’s at and if we can keep the margin here reasonable, then this is good news indeed.
I am here in Virginia, and as best I can tell, the state does not keep track of absentee ballots sent out by county.
We also do not register by party here in Virginia. However, what would be helpful is to know the number of absentee ballots sent out by county. With Northern Virginia being heavily democratic, if the number of absentee ballots in Northern Virginia is down, that would be an indication that Romney will be strong statewide.
I live in the City of Richmond, which is heavy D territory. In 2008, there was a huge line to vote, containing mostly minorities and a large number of people under 35. In 2010, it was mostly older, white folks voting. My suspicion is that I will have a good idea how Virginia will go when I vote - if there are far fewer younger and minority voters than in 2008, Romney has a good chance here.
please ping me with these. thanks.
I also read that in Cuyahoga county, the number of Democrat registered voters is down by a couple hundred thousand. That will be huge.
In any state, the key generally to a Republican statewide win is coming out of the Urban areas without getting crushed... Ohio isn’t quite as bad as say a NY or a PA, where you have HUGE CITIES that represent so utterly disproportionately parts of the states populations.
Philly alone determines PA elections, if you come out of Philly without being completely overrun, as a Republican you will win the election. Without Philly, PA would be as rock solid red in national elections as any southern state.
Ohio is no different, but Ohio’s urban centers are not nearly the overwhelming populations a Philly or NYC are to the rest of their states. For example, PA’s population overall is about 12,700,000 people, 1,500,000 live in the city of Philadelphia alone... well over 10% of the states population. Ohio on the other hand has about 11.5 Million people in it and less than 800,00 live in Cincinatti and Cleveland Combined! Now that’s just the cities proper, obviously the urban element extends to areas outside the city as well, but its NOWHERE near the levels of Philly... Ohio can still go Republican with a much higher percentage of Democratic votes in its urban centers, because they are not so rediculously disproportionally represented. Obama has to carry the urban centers in OHIO by huge margins to overrun the rest of OH... and I don’t think he’s going to remotely get them.
Whereas in a PA or a NY, the percentage to carry philly is much lower to overwhelm the state than it would have to be in the cleveland/cincinatti areas.
I believe the PA race is probably in the 2-5 points right now, and probably on the lower end of that range... With that being said I see no way Obama is remotely competitive in OH, no matter the public polls. It’s not a gimme, but I’d say he’s at least down 3-4.
Fight like its 1-2 points but I don’t buy it.
I grew up in the “Red” part of PA. I was always infuriated when the whole state would go Republican and Philly would hold out to the end to manufacture votes to swing the state.
Enthusiasm for Obama is non existent this time around, folks will vote for him obviously, but the idea he’s going to see 2008 type numbers are idiotic. Most of teh people I talk to that admit to supporting him are dejected, they can’t offer a solid reason others should support him other than “he needs more time”... or “its Bush’s fault, he’s doing the best he can”.
The 47% comment does seem to have riled up the D base a bit, just as Obama’s ‘you didn’t build that’ riled up the R base even more than it already was.. but other than that, I haven’t really noticed any fundamental change in the overall trajectory, which is a solid Obama defeat in weeks.. Trending I see still seems all ABO...
Not yet. If you’ve got it, post it!
He’s already at 6+ in Cuyahoga, up huge over 08 in Franklin.
He did not. Since then, we learned that these are Jay Cost’s number. He’s better known than us Freepers, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Barone is getting this now from Jay.
On the ping list, please.
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