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To: Swede Girl

I think it’s good for Romney - because they over-sampled Dems by 6, and Indys favor Romney by 6, then combine all that with the fact the poll was conducted over five days with only one of those days being post debate.


10 posted on 10/05/2012 8:13:23 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy
This is very good for Romney.

I have noticed this in the last few weeks. Apparently the pollsters got pissed about their Dem over samples being pointed out. So what they did is inflate both Dem and Rep samples and decrease the Indy sample. That way they could get the results they wanted but hide the statistical manipulation they were using to get that result.

So reweigh the poll to a 34D-31R-25Indy which is a more accurate sample and use the Indy sample split as the poll did 38% to 32% and you get an Obama 42-Romney 41 split.
The rest is either no vote, vote for 3rd party or undecided. Out of that 14% you can figure a 4% no vote or other vote leaving 10% undecided

Historically undecided break 2 to 1 to the challenger. In this case Romney. Split it that way and you get Romney 47.5 and Obama 45.5.

Now keep in mind that is merely the snapshot right now.

Looking at the internals what Romney seems to have accomplished in the 1st debate is to totally undo all the negative advertising the Mass Media and the O regime have thrown at him to date. In non partisan voters minds Romney has solidly established himself as a viable credible alternative to Obama. Based on how the trend is going, that suggest it is now Romney's race to lose. It is going to be very tough to undo the damage Obama did to himself in the 1st debate.

22 posted on 10/05/2012 9:33:36 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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