"Unbelievable Numbers" Says Former GE CEO Jack Welch

Townhall.com ^ | October 7, 2012 | Mike Shedlock

[Kaslin]

Political charges flew on Friday following the unexpected drop in unemployment rate by three-tenths of a percent.

Former GE CEO Jack Welch led the way with a Tweet "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers".

In two of the last three months the unemployment rate fell solely because of people dropping out of the labor force. This past month, people came back in the labor force but part-time hiring and government hiring went up even more.

Parttime employment went up by 582,000 as noted in my report September Jobs +114,000; Unemployment Rate 7.8%; Part-Time Workers +582,000; Initial Reaction and Election Impact.

Government hiring went up by 187,000 in September, something I failed to mention yesterday.

Household Data Detail



click on chart for sharper image

Taking a closer look, seasonally-adjusted, the number of government workers went up by 681,000 since June. (20.619 million in September vs. 19.938 million at the June low point). That's a lot of jobs (and jobs the economy can do without in my opinion).

Also note that self-employment rose in the last month by 118,000. How much of that number is trinket selling on Ebay or other self-employment with no real income?

Regardless, unless the BLS changed its survey methods or survey questions, as wild as the numbers seem, charges of political pandering are likely to be misguided.

Did the BLS make adjustments to how it asked questions? If so, someone would probably have spilled the beans already.

Summary Items of Note (Numbers May Overlap)

• Self-Employment +118,000
• Government +187,000
• Part-Time +582,000

This was not as strong a report as it first looked, whether one considers it "unbelievable" or not.

[American Constitutionalist]

*** "Unbelievable Numbers" Says Former GE CEO Jack Welch ***


That's a fact Jack

[BillM]

Quite the aberration for a September adjustment (1980 to present)!

[FreeAtlanta]

Quite the aberation from 1948 until 2008....

[StAnDeliver]

It’s the Seriousness of the Charge.

[ScaniaBoy]

More data:

The link above includes diagram comparing Houshold survey job data and ADP survey of business.

But the blogger notes something else:

The number of non-institutional population going on disability has increased dramatically,as has the number of households on the SNAP (food stamp) program. In fact, the number of people going on disability since July 2010 has been larger than the decline in unemployment by near a quarter of a million!

Some simple figures - Disabled workers 7/1 2010: 26 000 000
Unemployed 7/1 2010: 14 600 000
Sum: 40 600 000

Disabled workers 10/5 2012: 28 776 000
Unemployed 10/5 2012: 12 088 000
Sum: 40 864 000

[The_Reader_David]

Now that’s interesting.

Put that together with the fact the U6 unemployment rate was unchanged from August, suggesting the drop in the U3 was due to part-time hiring, and you’ve got some facts with which Ryan can (and probably will) use to trip up Biden’s attempt to spin this report as “proof Obama’s policies are working”.

[ScaniaBoy]

Check the last graph in the link I provided. Quite telling!

I assume Ryan who is a numbers guy has thesefigures available, but it won't hurt if anyone who has connection with the campaign mke sure he sees these figures.

Also, note my comment here. This is exactly what happened to us in Sweden after our crash. And even when the economy started to recover the unemployment/disability remained high.

This is a dangerous way to go!

[EBH]

Also note that self-employment rose in the last month by 118,000. How much of that number is trinket selling on Ebay or other self-employment with no real income?

Beware of how that Self-employment number is calculated. Trinket selling on e-bay? They have to be selling a fair amount of trinkets to kick in quarterly reporting requirements.

I am one of those 'little' self-employment folks, but business is good ...up 56% of last year and I need to hire. What I have noticed though is a lot of vehicles on the road with those magnetic signs on the doors. Advertising everything from childcare to house cleaning to plumbing and handyman for hire.

There is indeed something percolating way down here in the microbusiness end of the economy...and might just be the next big thing that no one was even expecting. Always remember those crazy kids building computers in their basements in the late 1970's and someone say one day there will be one in every home and school in the nation...and an industry was born.

If you look at history at all, out of every recession/depression in America, when government gets out of the way, incredible advances are made. Often coming from those little "trinket" businesses.