[tatown]

Nope, D+5:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, ‘other’:2%
Saturday, October 06, 2012 10:00:13 AM · 74 of 170
Cruising For Freedom to tatown; profit_guy

If my reverse-engineering using profit_guy’s internals is correct, Rasmussen’s party ID breakdown is:

39.3%D 34.4%R 26.6%I

Rasmussen is using a +5D model.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2941087/posts?page=74#74

[Cruising For Freedom]

I’m posting from my cell right now so can’t do it, but it should be pretty easy to confirm my reverse engineered party IDs by just cross checking against some of profit_guy’s internals from that thread and see if they arrive to the same numbers.

[Cruising For Freedom]

Rasmussen is using a D+5 model, and here's the math.

In a prior thread, I reverse engineered the Ras breakdown percentages to 34.4%R / 39.3%D / 26.6% I (D+5 gap).

Since there's some controversy on whether Ras is using 3D or 5D model, I thought I'd show the math. Here's profit_guy's internals (thanks, BTW!) as of Sunday:



Confirming these calculations are easy enough by picking a few party breakdown crosstabs and seeing if they match the answer. I picked the following three:

Total Approve      (50%) = 0.14R 0.87D 0.42I 
Wrong Direction    (57%) = 0.89R 0.25D 0.62I 
Romney Leaners     (49%) = 0.89R 0.10D 0.54I

Here's the math:

Total Appove    = 0.14*0.344 + 0.87*0.393 + 0.42*0.266 = 0.5018 (50%)
Wrong Direction = 0.89*0.344 + 0.25*0.393 + 0.62*0.266 = 0.5693 (57%)
Romney Leaners  = 0.89*0.344 + 0.10*0.393 + 0.54*0.266 = 0.4891	(49%)

So, I think my original calculations of Rasmussen using D+5 gap are correct after all. Furthermore, note that Rasmussen is predicting a D turnout equal to or slightly greater than 2008, where exit polls showed that 39% of the voters self-identified as Ds. Take what you will.