“Ugh! Weekend effect, I suppose”
I went to Rasmussen’s page as linked above.
The results are mixed, no matter how you slice it.
The Senate race in Ohio is still a horse race (neither candidate has broken the 50% mark), but Virginia looks like a goner for George Allen, Kaine is at the 50% level.
Rasmussen shows Romney at 49% in Virginia with a shot at winning, but in Ohio, Obama has hit 50% with Romney trailing at 49% — that doesn’t leave much leverage to turn that contest around, unless we change some “likely Obama voters” into “likely Romney voters”. That’s going to be difficult. Without Ohio, Romney faces a Herculean struggle to amass enough votes to win in the Electoral College.
Florida is Romney 49%, Obama 47%, looks good for us.
I don’t know how old Rasmussen’s poll for Pennsylvania is, but his last-reported numbers were Obama 51%, Romney 39%. I know the race there is tightening, but it looks like Obama’s going to get PA.
This is going to be a bitter struggle to the very end, with lawsuits and claims of fraud which may even delay the final results in some states. I’m sensing this will become the “last-ditch attempt” by the ‘rats to steal the election, a la Al Franken.
Those here on FR who say it’s going to be a landslide — well, better think again. The fact that the election remains so close with a candidate as provenly destructive to the American ideal as is Obama indicates that there is now a huge electoral demographic that will never again support the “traditional American model”.
We are entering an era of bitterly divided politics — a “civil cold war”, if you will.
Still a tough fight ahead...
You have to learn something about MOE with state polls. They aren’t near as accurate as you make out.