Party identification doesn’t correlate with turnout (at the national level). Ras is smart in his assertion that history should be his guide. He clearly sees that the D+8 model of 2008 is wrong, but he also is rational to believe the pendulum won’t swing to an R+4 as this would be unprecedented. I’m sure he uses surrogate measures of voter enthusiasm to refine his turnout model, and these are subject to change as we move closer to Nov 6. As of now, I don’t see much to juice up Dem enthusiasm over the next few weeks. I sense all my Dem friends are very quiet and UN-enthusiastic. The debate last week was a real blow to their collective solar plexus, and R&R simply need to hold the line over the next 3 debates and give nothing new that can rally the communists.
Thanks for your well reasoned response. I still think Ras’s latest D+5 is a bit excessive in favor of the Dems. I realize 2008 turnout factors come into play, however what annoys me the most is that 2010 turnout stats seem to mean NOTHING to ANY of the polling firms. And 2010 is more recent than 2008. Everyone is acting as if 2012 is 2008 all over again. And it isn’t. The economy sucks crap and Obama now has a record to defend. Obama should be toast if it’s still all about the economy, stupid, as James Carville once famously said.