As Romney campaigns in swing states, it's time for him to support the Senate slate with a message of building a team for the future. Romney has to convince voters that it's not enough to replace Obama, but that Romney needs a team in Congress, too, to work with him on putting America back on the right track.
-PJ
-PJ
Sorry, but I’m ot wringing my hands yet. Good grief, I’m getting F-ing burned out on these polls.
I don’t know what the hell Jeff Flake is thinking but he might want to get out of the McCain “I got it in the bag” mode. Republicans are going to lose Kyl’s seat. That lying Obama turd Carmona is flooding the airwaves with with some pretty brutal ads. Yo Jeff! Time to wake up pal!
Very informative (if a little depressing) post!
I’m still pretty hopeful Scott Brown will pull it out over Warren in Mass. It’s going to be close, but I think he’ll close the deal.
Connecticut is disappointing. I think pretty highly of Linda McMahon, and Murphy is just a doofus. I get why she lost in 2010 to Blumenthal - first timer running against a broadly popular state figure. But I really thought she would own things this time around.
As for Missouri...I’m sure to get another round of angry replies and some um, “interesting” FReepmail for saying this, but I blame Akin more than the GOP-E for this mess. I would agree that at this point it’s probably in the GOP’s best interest to support Akin financially, simply because of the stakes (i.e. control of the Senate). He’s damaged goods, but he’s still the only chance to beat McCaskill, and a win is a win.
At the same time, the GOP would not be in this mess had Akin done the right thing and stepped down after his incredibly stupid comments. They destroyed his advantage and his campaign still not completely recovered from them. It’s not fair, but very little in politics is, and sometimes you do what you have to for the good of the cause. There were plenty of solidly conservative alternate choices without baggage, and I don’t buy the “I’m staying in out of principle” narrative he puts forth. Not for one second. I see it as a lot more about a Murkowski-esque sense of entitlement than anything to do with conservative principles.
I can’t even watch this. We’re going to have to hope that Romney brings in the Senate. This is all we need, with Reid blocking everything up again, and then having the balls to call the Republicans obstructionists. I can’t even watch.
Pass this list on to everyone you know...these folks need our support and WE AND ROMNEY NEED THEM. Romney also has to get the message that he needs to send support/funds to these candidates NOW. Mark Levin has been championing this drive to support these candidates, and I would hope he contacts Sen. Jim DeMint that Romnney needs to send financial help to these candidates.....time to email Jim DeMint.
My take on the senate is mostly about bad luck, tea party challenges and late primaries combining for a disappointing election.
CT is a deep blue state and Linda McMahon was always a long shot.
FL had a late contested August primary that left Nelson with 10 million cash on hand vs. Mack with 1 million cash on hand.
ME had Snowe retiring in a deep blue state.
MA would always be a difficult hold in a deep blue state.
MO should have been a pick up but Akin came along.
NV should be an easy hold but with Harry Reid lurking, you never know for sure until the ballots are counted.
In OH, Sherrod Brown was always ahead or tied and never behind. OH is a swing state and Brown is a well financed incumbent with no character or ethical problems. His only weakness is his too liberal voting record. This race was always considered an “icing on the cake” pick up and never the cake.
VA is about two well financed former governors going after each other in a swing state. This has been a 50-50 state for a year.
Wisconsin is a deep blue state with a really late Aug. primary. Our candidate is better and we will pick this seat up but it will be close.
Picking up the Senate was about winning MT, ND, MO, and NB while holding IN with Lugar, ME with Snowe, NV with Heller and MA with Brown. Other pickup chances were VA, FL and OH.
Now we are in trouble because of Akin, Snowe, and Lugar. We can still win VA and OH and MA. And Tommy Thompson adds WI as a chance.
So I see our chances little changed from earlier in the year except for Snowe, Akin and Lugar but we gain with Thompson.
Bottomline: We pick up 4 (MT,ND,NB,WI). We lose 1 (ME). We might lose 3 more (MA, NV, IN) but will probably hold 2 of 3. We might pick up 5 more (VA,OH,MO,PA,CT) but will probably get only 1 of these 5. Net pickup is 3 which gets us to 50-50.
Well duh. This is the only way Romney gets to say he wants to repeal ObamaCare without having to deliver on that promise.
I think the last 10 days have been seismic given the performance of the debates. The momentum is with Romney and there is a growing likelihood that he will win big in November. There is a growing likelihood that he will have coat tails too. I think many of these seats are in play and the dems are very nervous. If Romney wins big in November, there will be dem casualties in the Senate.
And what about Senate races Montana & North Dakota?
MO was a big blow as that was a sure thing, but we will hopefully still get that one. Several candidates are not performing as well as expected, like Rick Berg, Tommy Thompson, George Allen, and Connie Mack. Romney may have to drag them over the finish line. But some are doing better than expected, like Linda McMahon, Josh Mandel, and Tom Smith. To his credit, Scott Brown is in good shape to beat Fauxahontas.
Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.
Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.
If you're interested in all polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.
It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus is the Senate.
| 10/13/12 Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
State |
Republican Candidate | Democrat/IND Candidate | Hold OR Gain |
| NE* | Debra Fischer | Bob Kerrey | GAIN |
| AZ* | Jeff Flake | Richard Carmona | HOLD |
| IN* | Richard Mourdock | Joe Donnelly | HOLD |
| WI* | Tommy Thompson | Tammy Baldwin | GAIN |
| NV | Dean Heller+ | Shelley Berkley | HOLD |
| ND* | Rick Berg | Heidi Heitcamp | GAIN |
| MT | Denny Rehberg | Jon Tester | GAIN |
| MA | Scott Brown+ | Elizabeth Warren | HOLD |
| VA* | George Allen | Tim Kaine | GAIN |
| OH | Josh Mandel | Sherrod Brown+ | GAIN |
| FL | Connie Mack | Bill Nelson+ | GAIN |
| MO | Todd Akin | Claire McCaskill+ | GAIN |
| MI | Pete Hoekstra | Debbie Stabenow+ | GAIN |
| CT* | Linda McMahon | Chris Murphy | GAIN |
| PA | Tom Smith | Bob Casey+ | GAIN |
| NM* | Heather Wilson | Martin Heinrich | GAIN |
| NJ | Joe Kyrillos | Bob Menendez+ | GAIN |
| HI* | Linda Lingle | Mazie Hirono | GAIN |
| ME* | Charles Summers | Angus King (Ind.) | HOLD |
| WV | John Raese | Joe Manchin+ | GAIN |
| WA | Michael Baumgartner | Maria Cantwell+ | GAIN |
| *Open Seat +Incumbent | |||
I doubt there will be a whole lot of ballot splitting in this race this year. The Senate will most likely go to whoever wins the President.
Romney just doesn't need the Senate, he needs 60. If we still have Reid, the Romney Administration will go no where fast, and we get our @$$es kicked in 14' setting up a cycle for Hilda' in 2016.
Yes he needs to be on the stump with these people and do Commericals. I am sorry I am so frustrated here in Michigan, he is gonna have to drag Hoekstra's behind across the finish line and that drives me nuts....