Posted on 10/14/2012 11:07:03 AM PDT by Arthurio
The problem with the media dubbing anyone the victory is we have the ability to give live reactions via twitter/face book/forums this day and age. The public reaction is more apparent and easy to see.
“These markets trade REAL money and are open to traders world-wide.”
Including George Soros and friends?
Get ready for Joe Biden and Moderator Vs. GOP round 2, and round 3.
The hen is most wisest of God’s creatures. She crows and cackles only after the eggs have hatched.
——Lincoln
I can’t cite the post now, but I will bookmark this and reply later.
There was a poster there that admitted manipulating the Bush/Kerry IEM market in 2004 and making a bundle doing it.
iEM is always right AT THE END. The prices converge as the polls close. It isn’t necessarily correct until then.
These markets are too small to be efficient and hence are not accurate.
I once thought that ‘people are putting down their money’ so they should be more accurate. But the markets never grew big enough to ensure efficiency.
If anything - they are trailing indicators. Most of the money represents people betting after a combination of the polls plus the narrative.
So it’s a trailing indicator of the polls, which are skewed against Romney by at least 2.5 points, and a trailing indicator of the mood/narrative.
Intrade still has Obama at 61.7% chance of winning as at this posting time.
Go figure...
Remember, the topic of this debate is foreign affairs. Obama can only attack Romney for what he thinks Romney's foreign policies MIGHT be. Romeny has the advantage to explain why Obama's foreign policies have been a disaster, and why they need to be changed. I don't think the topics can be swayed toward swing states, versus, non-swing states. I think the third debate will be available for that.
Remember the topic of this the townhall debate is... GASP! everything.
“Remember, the topic of this debate is foreign affairs.”
Not fully true.
Straight from the website:
“Second presidential debate (October 16, 2012, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY)
The second presidential debate will take the form of a town meeting, in which citizens will ask questions of the candidates on foreign and domestic issues. Candidates each will have two minutes to respond, and an additional minute for the moderator to facilitate a discussion. The town meeting participants will be undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization.”
These guys have been right for the last 8 elections since they started using economic modeling:
The model and it’s prediction were submitted for peer review the PDF is available online. They have updated their results and now have NM going for Romney.
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