Folks, I am absolutely delighted and thrilled with this latest polling data and I hope it proves to be lasting trend through election day.
HOWEVER, given all this crap we’ve been through these last few months and all of the manipulation we’ve seen with the polls. Before we discuss a particular poll-—whether good news or bad news——Let’s find out the DEM/REP/IND breakdown of the poll. Show me the poll’s components and I’ll show you the outcome.
Does anyone happen to know the DEM/REP/IND breakdown for these latest polls from Gallup?
Here is all I can find quickly on their site. The fact that it is a rolling deal over 7 days I'm sure it wanders.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone-only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
And this from Sept 10.
http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-five-percent-lead-by-unskewed-gallup-poll-data
The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today shows Mitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total.