There was a reason not to believe them before as their models were assuming a turnout that was even more democrat than 2008. Their reputations are on the line now, so their models are becoming a bit more reasonable.
This looks encouraging, but there are too many variables.
Laz is right. Turnout is key. We need to vote. My take? People will vote their pocketbooks, and Obama will lose on this alone. I hope....
Just vote.