If I’m reading the numbers correctly, the sample of likely voters in Iowa was +2 Democrat, and +5 Democrat in Wisconsin.
According to Iowa SOS website from October 1, model for their state should be R32/D32/I35 (active registered voters). In Nov 2008, it went R31/D33/I35.
Comparing November 2008 numbers and October 2012 numbers, shows R only 4000 short of total registered voters and D down 52,000 compared to 2008! Independents are also down compared to 2008 by about 26,000.
http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2012/CoOct12.pdf
Every single poll in the country has Romney destroying Obama with Independents yet this poll says this?
“Among independent likely voters, 49% rally for the president while 38% are for Romney.”