Tomorrow, the entire sample will be post Debate Two. However, it will include Friday's sample, which some consider to be unfriendly for Republicans
Crosstabs?
Not to be a conspirator. But I’m starting to think the lib media’s working the ref routine with Rasmussen is at play here (e.g. Chuck Todd calling Rasmussen ‘slop’).
By keeping it close, Ras sticks it in their face as they now have to hang their hat on their most hated pollster, and they look like fools and hypocrites.
Bottomline, Obama cannot get to 50% in any LV poll, and is at -14 today, not a good number.
A couple weeks back we’d have taken a tie in a heartbeat. I still say if Romney is within 1-2 on election day he wins based on enthusiasm and GOTV efforts.
But it says Romney has an advantage in polling since the debate. I’m guessing a very good day fell off, but that Romney still has an advantage in polling after a debate Obama “won” is very good news.
Also, President Obama is -14% today
We`re going to run into this between now and election day. w:atls happening is some American voters are faced with the choice between economic prosperity and 0bama. They`ve been emotionally bonded to 0bama for a ling time now, and quitting him is extremely difficult.
POST Debate 2 data from Rasmussen:
Romney hits 50% in VA
Couple of things re: crosstabs.
Romney was +9 with indies. And today is only +1 (47-46). That is a big falloff in one day.
And gender: Romney was +10 w Men yesterday and -4 w Women for a +6 gender gap lead. Today he’s +6 w Men (-4) and -6 w Women (-2) for a E gender gap.
Either a great Romney day fell off or a great Obama day was added.
And we are surprised because? Watch Gallup magically close up by next Monday.
This makes no sense. Gallup has Romney up 7 and Ras has it tied? Two extremes. The momentum has clearly been with Romney and Ras never, IMO, really indicated that and even that Romney won the first debate so profoundly.
Another thing. The Right Track Wrong Track (I like to follow).
Blacks (84/4) and Whites (30/60) have always stayed constant. But the “other” (Asians, Hispanics) is more volatile.
Yesterday the “Other” had RT/WT as 31/59 (-28) - which fell in with sentiment of whites.
Today it is 37/50 (-13). A 25 point jump. I have never seen a huge jump like that. And unemployment claims were up to highest level in weeks. Odd! Rasmussen’s data is very inconsistent.
Encouraging considering these numbers from 2008:
Obama was a solid +4 from this day forward in 2008
“Team RR is a bit downn with 2 days of post POTUS Debate 2 polling in.”
Not according to the article...
“In the two nights of polling conducted since the debate, Romney has a slight advantage”
Moral Boosting Analysis.
Rounding could explain some of this plus the bad Rasmussen polling day on Tuesday.
Example: Romney 48.4 and Obama 47.5 equates to a 48 to 48 tie. When Tuesday’s bad data rolls off then Romney should lead again in the Saturday poll since, according to Raz, he has won the last two days.
As it sits now, I'm guessing 48% 0, and 52% ABO. Also guessing Johnson and other 3rd party at 1%, that's 51% Romney, about the same as the 50.7% Reagan won when he unseated the last Democrat incumbent.
How are the ground games in Ohio and New Hampshire going?
If we’re tied, isn’t Romney essentially winning since undecideds at this point typically go to the challenger?
These results are matters of serious concern, since Rasmussen is a good pollster with a solid track record. This is still a very close race, which could go either way. I believe it will go Romney’s way — but much is going to depend upon voter turnout.
Fortunately, the Gallup Romney-up-by-seven polls (which I expect to plunge today or tomorrow) should dampen Obama voter enthusiasm.
Obama stuck at 47-48% and at -14. If this were your candidate you wouldn’t be happy. OH is the only problem left for Romney, and I’m not sure how much a problem it is. Polls are all over the map there. But no way the Marist/WSJ/NBC poll reflects OH reality. How could Obama be up more now than he was in ‘08 against McCain? I would bet there is NO state currently where Obama polls better today than he did in the ‘08 election.
I don’t believe any of the polls are accurate due to sample bias, and I don’t believe that Rasmussen deserves all of the the media gives him. We forget, for example, that Rasmussen did horribly in predicting the results of the 2010 mid-term election. And if you accept Rasmussens theory that an online panel can supplant landline interviews, what about YouGov, that uses online panels exclusively?
I will agree that since it is run by a conservative, Rasmussen Research probably does less polling for the purpose of manipulating public opinion than the others - or at least knocks it off sooner. But remember, Rasmussen missed the final margin in the Hawaii Senate race by 40 points, the largest error by a polling company recorded since 1998.
Oy! So sick of Rasmussen and his TIED TIED TIED every other day. Really? Come on!!