Nate Silver’s own research says an incumbent who is both below 50% and behind the challenger will lose the majority of the undecided vote and the election.
Granted, he was speaking of the last polls before election day, but his research does not at all bode well for Obama.
My sense is that Americans, in general, don’t like Barack Obama. I don’t. I believe he showed that haughty demeanor in the debate the other night that really concerns me.
Other than that, Dick Morris believes undecideds automatically break for the challenger. If he’s right, then Obama is in a really bad way. If Silver is right, then Obama is in a very bad way.
As always, though, don’t count your chickens before they hatch.
Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College improved to 70.4 percent on Thursday from 65.7 percent on Wednesday, according to the forecast.
I think he has his own motive to float the Obama ahead number. Just so that RCP average will show Obama slightly ahead.
Otherwise his recent number showing Obama widening the lead does not ‘make sense’ or follow the trending.