Posted on 10/21/2012 6:23:22 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
A late surge in support for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has put him in a dead heat with President Barack Obama with just over two weeks to go before the election, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Sunday.
Among likely voters, the candidates are now tied, 47% to 47%.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
In other words, Romney leads by 5.
A more accurate and appropriate headline would be “WSJ/NBC poll now in line with the majority of other polls showing Romney either ahead or tied for the Presidency”.
Coming from Abc/Washington Post, I think we can safely say Romney is really leading.
a tie is not going to cut it, if 47% of the electorate is really still stuck on stupid with 2 weeks to go
That was my first thought, too. If WSJ/NBC polling shows it tied, Romney must be light-years ahead.
NBC says tie = Romney is ahead.
This outfit has been consistently oversampling Dems by anywhere from +8 to +12 throughout the election cycle. Anyone got the internals?
Romney up 2 in Rasmussen today.
“In other news, the unemployment rate really is 11%.”
That's probably correct.
As you certainly know by now, most polls this year (most definitely including NBC/WSJ) have chronically oversampled Democrats, usually by 7-8%, in line with 2008 turnout.
What you may not know is that many of the same polls have now taken to oversampling women voters by close to the same margin.
The poll cited here will not be released in its entirety until this evening, but I'd be willing to bet that the Male/Female sample is skewed beyond demographic reality (49%/51%).
Poll co-sponsor NBC has a few more details:
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/21/14593294-nbcwsj-poll-presidential-contest-now-tied
Operation “align yourself with other polls and with reality” has started.
My guess is that unless we see a major October/November surprise (v. unlikely) then this poll will show Romney ahead with 1 - 2% in the last poll before the election. That will be close enough to keep Zero’s hopes alive, but the polling organization will still be able to claim it predicted the correct winner.
Its the omaba bounce from he and candy’s debate kabuki dance.
(Dead cat bounce)
Chuck Todd on Twitter says “@chucktodd: And for those who will ask: party ID split in LV sample is +3 Dem and in the RV sample, +6 Dem”
Never believe ANYTHING NBC had a hand in.
Surprise, surprise, a media poll coming around. And I thought Obama ‘won’ debate #2.
Obama has maxed out at around 46%. Well below the 50% he needs to have a viable shot.
Sounds like the political hacks know they've been exposed and are tired of having to respond to, But what is the party breakdown in your bullshit poll?
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