Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: R50/O46

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/23 | Rasmussen Reports

[tatown]

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Other than brief convention bounces, this is the first time either candidate has led by more than three points in months.

[DaveInDallas]

So posting this 79 times yesterday during the debate wasn’t enough?

[AFPhys]

Rasmussen re-normalizes the samples he polls using some type of longer-term rolling average of self-reported party ID. I believe that moving window is somewhere on the order of a month, and does not include the currently polled time period.

Some have accused Ras of skewing his samples toward Dem without reason. However, if that is the methodology, and the time frame is on the order of a month, right now the results of the first debate will be coming into the picture more fully as far as people’s willingness to ID as the same party as Romney. That is displacing the Dem “bump” for party ID. I do not see any event since the first debate which yields such a change. So, from here on out, the Ras sample will be more reflective of the voting public than it was earlier.

Look to see Mitt to maintain this type of lead, and expanding it, in the Rasmussen poll from here on out.

(Apologies to FReepers and Ras if I am mischaracterizing his methodology, but this is what I have gleaned over the years)

[LS]

And Gore really didn’t win that; Bob Beckel once said that the early call of FL for Gore cost Bush 1m votes nationally, and 15,000 votes minimum in FL.

[pburgh01]

FreeRepublic certainly is a different place than it was last April, eh?

Well I think the debates had something to do with it. Are we getting Reagan? No way but I think on balance and compared to the Obungo he is an upgrade. One thing that is certian is the economy will shoot right up the first few quarters of next year. If we get a R Senate we can expect some good things, a more flat tax structure, a SLOWING of growth in the government and some of the far left crap gone. I do expect a purge of apparchicks and toadies at most of the agencies. Cutting government will be very vogue next year. I think Obama being President may have a silver lining, it gave enough people a vision of what Wilson, FDR and LBJ really had in mind if they had their way.... and enough Americans did not like it.

[AFPhys]

Beck is essentially analyzing Romney’s debating style last night as George Washington (the uniter) vs. Saul Alinsky.

I agree with him, that Romney was accurately gauging the voters who were still looking for a reason to vote for or against him, and tuned his message for them, instead of those of us in the “red meat” crowd.

[Raycpa]

Obama supporters, not to worry

Obama still wins intrade

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

And Nate (never wrong) Silver said Obama going to win:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Straight Vermonter]

That shows 16% black support for Romney which seems absurdly high. No Republican has gotten that much black support since Eisenhower in 1960.

[AFPhys]

I just posted a bit of an explanation of Rasmussen’s methodology and movement of the poll... post: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2948950/posts?page=102#102

It may answer some of the reasons people are baffled by the disparity earlier in Rasmussen’s polls, both now, and for the future. It may dispel some thoughts of “rigged poll” in Ras’ past.

If anybody is able to add to it, or correct anything in it, please do so.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

It’s an institution now.

[kevkrom]

I know Rasmussen’s model is a lot more complex than “weighted rolling average”, which clearly leads to a lot more stability than most other polls, but I couldn’t tell you what that model actually is. I’d be surprised if premium subscribers even know what it is — I’m guessing it’s Ras’ trade secret.

[justiceseeker93]

Probably the most amazing number in your chart is that Romney (counting leaners) is getting 16% of the black vote! That’s more than twice than in any other poll I’ve seen. If that’s anywhere near the true number and that pattern continues, the ‘Rats are deep trouble - not only in this contest, but in presidential elections and a lot of state elections in the future.

[Massimo75]

I noticed that those number seems to change back and forth in a more volatile way than the overall support for the candidate. This one for example is a picture I saved 3 days ago (it's the national presidential tracking on Oct. 20) and You can see that among black the support is a more familiar 95 to 5. I used the data of 2 different days to try to extract the party ID sample, cause once you know what percentage of indipendents, GOP and Dems makes the overall approval of each candidate you just need three equations to identify the three unknowns. I never found twice the same exact result (even because we don't have decimal numbers) but should not be far from Dem39 Gop36 Ind25, as someone said here few days ago. Anyway. Some polls are blue, some other are red, we can't be sure which ones are correct. But after the debate I think I know which ones they believe, cause yesterday Obama was cleary going for it like there was no tomorrow while Romney was playing safe all the time.

[xuberalles]

Can I write that on their tombstones? A fitting epitaph!

[DaveInDallas]

It’s an institution now.

I understand -- I went to a college where the saying is "if you do it twice, it's a tradition."

[Dave W]

LOL!

[frogjerk]

Thank you, patriot.

[sanjuanbob]

Chuck E Cheese?

[justiceseeker93]

If we get a R Senate we can expect some good things...

How about repeal of Obamacare among those "good things"? That will save lives as well as help the economy.

[left that other site]

LOL!

[Deb]

Gallup (finally) concurs.