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Posted on 10/25/2012 8:53:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Very good presentation package from the NWS in Mt. Holly:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf
Most I know are, as I'm only a couple miles from that line.
Water reached the doors of our favorite dining/drinking eatery during high tide this morning - sump pumps and shop vacs are going to be working overtime in there when the water recedes...........
If that is the worse that happens - so be it. Stay safe - and dry!
The last NY subway runs tonight at 7:00PM.
Besides NYC and NJ transit being shut down, NYC schools are closed tomorrow and Zone A is being asked to evacuate. Our grocery stores are all small so when they are mobbed, the lines go all the way to the back of the store—I spent hours getting various items. Most people were buying for the storm; the rest just getting the usual beer and snacks for the game.
The Philly transit agency SEPTA is shutting down at the end of today’s runs. Philly schools shut. Only essential personnel will report to work.
Check out the 5 o’clock forecast. Especially the storm surge and the models.
The models are all on top of each other and 9-12 ft surge along parts of the the north Jersey shore up to NYC. Plus middle of the night strike to the Delaware river.
They just aren’t catching a break so far.
“..daughter in Baltimore...”
Ours (20) is in NYC -lower East Village - Ichecked her address and she is not in any of the evacuation zones. However- she is trying to make the 6:50 out of Grand central to Poughkeepsie - it’s the last train out as they stop at 7:00. She is wondering if she really needs to leave - thoughts anyone?
Would she have a more sound place to wait out the storm in Poughkeepsie, and family/friends there? If so it seems a good idea to leave. JMHO.
Definitely, leave now. I have been reading the weather weenie forums all day, and they are all mad as h#ll at Bloomie for not recognizing the danger of this storm.
Tell her to make a reservation at a hotel, and catch that train.
Granma Joy says she doesn’t need to sit through this storm in a dark, cold, apartment, with no elevators, no water, and little stores all out of food.
In a depaeture from all the concern over the northeast, reports from Hatteras Island, NC are that the main artery Highway 12 is closed due to sand and ocean overwash. The island is now inaccessible by road. Two houses have collapsed into the surf in the Mirlo Beach section of Rodanthe. Virtually all webcams are down. Surf is reported to be 12 to 15 feet, triple overhead. Wind 40 knots, air temp 63, ocean temp 74.
A buoy 240 miles west of Bermuda reported waves 36 feet at 5:50 Eastern Time.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048
Despite the dire forecasts, I can’t help but believe the storm will begin to deteriorate as soon as it crosses out of the warm Gulf Stream, which clashes with the cold Labrador Current at Cape Hatteras, and then veers out to sea, headed toward County Cork, Ireland. These storms feed off of warm water and lose steam over cold water or land.
My daughter is planning on hunkering down and riding out the storm. I hope it stays out to sea and doesn’t come anywhere near the coast, but we’ll see what happens. I hope that anyone trying to get out is able to.
I was in Jamaica when Sandy hit last Wednesday (on vacation, lucky me!). I am almost embarrassed to see such hand-wringing and fear-mongering over this storm as it hits the U.S. The Jamaican staff members never once complained or whined about what would happen to their homes while they were having to work at the resort through the storm and the clean-up afterwards. They were out in the storm cleaning up fallen trees and debris with the raging winds and rain, not knowing if their own homes had been damaged. The next day, they were happily reporting how their families and homes had fared. No electricity, but everyone was safe, and if you saw where a lot of Jamaicans live, you’d be shocked more people weren’t hurt.
The power was never out at the resort because they had a generator, but by Friday, two days after the storm, the Jamaican Public Service Company had restored power to 2/3rds of the island, and as of today, have restored 90% of the power. What is this nonsense about the eastern US being without power for weeks?
The storm surge came in the middle of the night, so I didn’t see it, but the wind caused a lot of rough water on Thursday and into Friday. But the hard-working staff at the resort had the place cleaned up to about 80% the next day, and everything was back to normal by Friday.
Seriously, people. It’s going to rain, and the wind is going to blow. The power may go out for a while. The water supply is going to be fine. The election is not going to be impacted whatsoever. Sheesh...grow some, and show some courage.
Thanks all for the advice - She got on the 6:50 Metro North train to Poughkeepsie. We live further up the Hudson River Valley about an hour north of there so my husband went to get her at the train station. I am very relieved!! The idea of a 20 year old in NYC if the electricity is out - possible looting ,etc.!! (Shudder) Thanks again for the kind advice!!
PS - My husband was also angry at Bloomberg’s speech - feeling that the tone was rather cavalier, to say the least.
Normally, your assessment would be correct. However, this storm has a blocking high above it and a negatively tilted trough to the west that are forecast to push it to the Northwest.
And increases in strength will come more from baroclinic factors, negating the colder waters as it moves towards the Jersey Shore.
I think this will be the worst wind event in Philly since the Gale of 1878.
I’ve been through three Hurricanes, Fran, Bertha, and Bonnie... two cat twos and a cat three. This is barely a cat one. You are right, they are way overboard in their hand-wringing...especially Potus. I predict this will be embarrassingly uneventful.
I can't imagine where that comes from, other than the fact that Hurricane Irene, the Halloween Snowstorm last year and the derechos this year had people without power for over a week - and this is forecast to be a much, much larger event than those three.
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