California Poll: 0 53%, R 41%
President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden maintain a lead over Republican challengers Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (53% to 41%) among California likely voters in the upcoming presidential election. Findings were similar last month and in July. The second presidential debate occurred while the survey was being conducted.
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There are likely two problems with this poll. If its like most of the rest — it oversamples democrats. Second, it does not reflect the big break toward romney that happened after the second debate.
Look at the (liberal) Washington Post poll trend map.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/index.html
Its showing a cascade effect as Obama’s support collapses and Romneys support goes parobolic.
This presidential race is not going to be close. Obama voted today to encourage democrats to get out and vote early because the trend 2 weeks from now will be devastating for Obama.
In places like Ohio and North Carolina you can already see the college towns are not turning out for Obama. Same will happen in California. Young whites will simply not vote. Same goes for about 5% of blacks who go to church. So Obama will get 90% rather than 95% of the black vote. Peel off another 15% of the Mexican vote and 25% of the Jewish vote.
Obama will still likely win California but it will be a squeaker if he does.
Of course if some Ads were run in California featuring Clint Eastwood saying it ok to vote for Romney and then looking off camera and saying “no I still won’t do that to myself.” And then turning to the camera and saying “And you shouldn’t either.”
Then play the theme song of the good bad and the ugly.
Likely then California would go for romney.
Gallup has Obama’s approval in California at 50.1 percent. No matter what other polls say, that says to me Obama could lose California if there is a tidal wave against him on election day. Even in California.
He’s weaker in California tham in places like New York and most of New England, where his approval is 55% or so except for New Hampshire and Maine. It’s not inconceivable Obama could lose Maine in a tidal wave election. That leaves Hawaii, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware and the District of Columbia.
Even among these states, Obama’s approval is below 50% in Rhode Island (49.2%) and only 50.9% in Delaware. Illinois is just 50.4%!
See approval rates by states at Gallup here:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx?ref=interactive