The analysis can be boiled down to this — whichever candidate loses Ohio, loses the election. Obama needs it every bit as much as Romney does.
Sure, there are scenarios out there where either of them could win without it, but they are very dubious.
We are in decent shape there. Obama is below 50% in most of the polls and the momentum is clearly with Romney.
One more strong week, and we should be able to get there and retire the worst President in the history of our country.
If the polls, poll analysis, and trends are to be believed, Obama needs Ohio much more than Romney does. I don't think Obama can win without Ohio, but I believe that Romney can.