I’m agreed -
Which is why I’ve told friends that Ras is no longer a Bible.
That said, I still think he’s the benchmark in terms of trend. His D+3 is a sin, but a predictable sin. Many of the other polls - I doubt they’re even consistent WITHIN their own model.
But this year, I’ve trusted the polls that don’t sauce it up, plus adjusting Rasmussen’s polls for the skew. Looks like from his intra-state polls - FL, VA etc ... that he’s not applying as much sauce.
Some of the smaller intra-state pollsters are the most accurate because of this - they’re more a reflection of what’s on the ground.
So I supect the Michigan poll from a couple days ago is pretty close, as is the Minnesota poll calling a 3 point race. (It’s probably about 1 though - but Marist would probably say it’s Obama +45)
Susquehanna, soon after releasing it’s PA polls showing it even and then 3 weeks ago with Romney up, defended itself in the face of a lot of flack by simply identifying all the things we’ve been talking about here. That it’s not a 2008 wave (might be the opposite), that blacks and yoots aren’t turning out, that indy’s are breaking to Romney ... and about 5 other things ... they just said ‘hey, we’re just being rational, not saucy.’
And remember - Suffolk pulled out of FL, VA and NC about 2 weeks ago, stating that they were a lock for Romney. That was about 10 days before people starting saying ‘well, looks like FL is leaning strong to Romney, NC too, VA looking scary for Obama.’
Suffolk called all that 2 weeks ago.
Ras though, whatever his reasoning, is I belief reliable as long as you know the adjustment.
But even with adjustments, it doesn’t all add up. I think we’ve accounted for 70% of the inaccuracies. The rest - who knows ... you can tweak these numbers any way you want with plausible deniability.
If you listen to the news - they take little pieces from each poll and stitch it together into the story they want to tell.
The best poll is “where are the campaigns visiting and advertising”
Which is why it’s so great that Romney has his “Expand the Map” push going on.
weird...we have to build in the adjustment to see an honest result....an adjustment that is hidden to all but the most nerdishly curious. can’t hang your hat on anything. Wouldn’t it be refreshing to see a pollster who would tell the truth from the beginning, and force the liberal pollsters to do the same, or look like the fools that they are? Keeping it a horse race must be so profitable, that they can’t resist keeping it close, until the houra approaching election day. It’s pathetic to watch them adjust to reality these last few days.