Posted on 10/29/2012 2:29:01 AM PDT by Arthurio
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
“These are the droids you’re looking for.” :)
THIS is the thread where you post that chart showing Battleground’s past accuracy.
Wow, Politico headlines the Obama favorable, but Weekly Standard goes with the “Extremely Likely” pushing Romney over the top.
I s’pose that numbers are what you want them to mean, no more, no less.
Uh...52-47 puts some blue states in play that no one is talking about not just Ohio and PA.
JoMa
To clear up confusion... Battleground has historically done both a tracking poll as well as a vote projection based on its polls. Here’s a link to their past projections since 1992. Judge for yourself:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/11-4-ballot%2Bballot-prediction-rcp.pdf
Again with the 47 percent!
Again with the 47 percent!
So the toe sucker is right (Dick Morris)
This begins to look better
Ed Goeas is right - this is 2008 but its a “wave” election in reverse.
The GOP should expand its margins in the House and take over the Senate also.
Wow, that’s an interesting chart. :)
So this TWS article is where Brit Hume got the R+5 from! Needless to say I am confused about the Battleground Poll showing O+1, and this TWS article. Can you provide some clarity?
I have to admit the commentary by Ed Goeas is encouraging. As well I liked what Karl Rove had to say on FNS.
Is this the FINAL “vote election model” for 2012 by Battleground? And is is for both Goeas and Lake? The 2008 version shows predictions by each pollster. Lastly, the projections are whole numbers in the weekly Standard article, but carried out to tenths of a percent in the chart.
i assume the link is for “vote projections”...until i read the footnote about their tracking poll being accurate...bear with me: does the table refer to vote projections or tracking poll?
Battleground shows Obama ahead in early voting - but it also shows those likely to vote favor Romney 53-44.
Does that sound like a close election to you? With that margin, it won’t be.
He’s basically ignoring the horse race numbers and examining the internal data. That’s how he comes up with his projections. It is basically a prediction, but his track record speaks for itself.
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