Lots of issues here: FL for eg, McDonald is a tricky one that guy. For FL, as of today in 2008, there were 135,000 more dems who had voted (early/absentee). For 2012 in FL, that advantage is 41,000.
Democrats face an early vote hurdle in FL That McDonald, he's a sneaky one, trying to trick us. We have the knowledge this year though buddy.
First, no one knows how ANYONE votes. They may know what someone tells an exist pollster---how reliable were those in 04?
Second, D/R numbers make up 65% or more of the electorate, but I numbers make up a big, big chunk. If they are voting R, that offsets a huge amount of D advantage.
Third, I just don't trust anything McDonald says. He basically lied about what the Ohio absentees said.
Fourth, in the case of OH does this INCLUDE absentees?