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I think there is going to have to be a surprise win in some other states for Romney...because Ohio is making me nervous.

"I think there is going to have to be a surprise win in some other states for Romney...because Ohio is making me nervous."

Does your concernnnnnn extend to the PV? Do you expect Romney to win the National Popular Vote? Of course you do. Then read the following....

Gallup	Final	2000	48%		46%
Rass	Final	2000	40%		49%

Natl	Bush	2000	47.9%	50,456,002	48.4%	50,999,897
Ohio	Bush	2000	50%	2,351,209	46.5%	2,186,190

Gallup	Final	2004	49%		49%
Rass	Final	2004	50.2%		48.5%

Natl	Bush	2004	50.7%	62,040,610	48.3%	59,028,444
Ohio	Bush	2004	50.8%	2,858,727	48.7%	2,739,952

Gallup	Final	2008	55%		44%
Rass	Final	2008	52%		46%

Natl	Bobo	2008	52.9%	69,456,897	45.7%	59,934,814
Ohio	Bobo	2008	51.5%	2,940,044	46.9%	2,677,820

Gallup	FnlWk	2012	51%		46%
Rass	FnlWk	2012	49%		47%

In Ohio, the GOP candidate consistently receives votes equal to, or greater than, his National popular vote.

< / argument >

Ohio will follow the national trend-GOP.

Ohio is fine.

Think about it - what is the last line of defense for the media and Axelrod?

Ohio (media narrative - it's all that matters)
"Romney may win the popular, but not the Electoral"

Ohio is an example of the old saying here that Flack is because you're over the target. All Axelrod propaganda is now invested in Ohio.

Ohio will go 4.5 for Romney.

Do you know that, as of yesterday, Obama's entire 263K '08 victory in Ohio is already wiped out by early voting and ballot requests? See LS's numbers, but also see Rove's WSJ article yesterday which de-emphasizes the significance of the actual math, just as Gallup buried the lede on the 20% swing against Obama in early voting into a final paragraph, presumably so he/they can maintain interest in their conversation.

The conversation is over. Right now media, including Rove and many R commentators, is all about keeping themselves relavent through Nov 7.

But also, they are setting themselves up for a great narrative about "how the polls and media got it wrong!!!!!" ... this analysis will go on for 3 months and spawn a number of books.

At this point, all media, most R media as well, know the race is over, and are collectively developing a narrative that will profit all of them - close race to the finish - grand surprise that it was a blow out.

It was never close.